After putting up arguably the greatest nine-start opening of any MLB pitching career, Chicago Cubs rookie Shota Imanaga struggled mightily in his 10th outing in the big leagues, as he gave up seven earned runs in 4.1 innings of work against the division-rival Brewers on Wednesday.
He allowed two home runs after giving up just three in his previous 53.2 innings and saw his season ERA leap from the record-setting 0.84 to 1.86; that's still an elite mark, but indicative of a major shift.
So the question must be asked: Was this just an off day, the likes of which even the best pitchers will experience from time to time, or has the league simply figured out Imanaga, putting an end to the charmed start of his MLB career?
Christian Yelich takes Shota Imanaga deep!
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 29, 2024
The first runs Imanaga has given up since May 7th pic.twitter.com/cmdGRbvvs8
The answer, as is so often the case in these situations, likely lies somewhere in the middle of those two extremes.
There was absolutely no way Imanaga was going to carry a sub-1.00 ERA much farther than he already had, but there's no reason to believe that seven-run outings will be the norm or that he can't settle into high-caliber form for extended periods of time.
So what happened against Milwaukee? One tidbit is that the performance dropped Imanaga's whiff rate from the 86th percentile to the 76th, without his chase rate changing too much. His walk rate also didn't really go anywhere, but his strikeouts fell off a cliff as he only punched out one Brewer.
This all indicates that Imanaga's control was still there, as was his velocity. He was throwing the same pitches, but they were getting hit at a higher rate. There are definitely positive and negative takeaways from that conclusion.
The good is that he hasn't suddenly stopped throwing the pitches that made him successful. The bad is that those same pitches didn't have the same effect against Milwaukee as they have in the past.
The Brewers didn't magically figure out how to crush the pitches that other MLB hitters couldn't in the past, but over Imanaga's first nine games, they were probably being swung at and missed at an unsustainable rate. All we can do is wait and watch to see just what the reasonable rate ends up being.
Our next look at Imanaga will be on June 4, as he looks for a big bounce-back start against the rival Chicago White Sox.
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