When the Saints kick off the 2024 season, they'll try to snap a three-year postseason drought. They might have a better chance than some realize.
New Orleans lost a tiebreaker to Tampa Bay for the NFC South crown a season ago, and its point differential (plus-75) was the best among non-playoff teams.
Here are three reasons the Saints should be optimistic about returning to the playoffs.
This year, the Saints will look the most different on offense since Sean Payton took over in 2006.
Longtime offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. was fired during the offseason, and head coach Dennis Allen lured 49ers passing game coordinator Klint Kubiak to New Orleans to revive the unit as offensive coordinator.
The Saints finished 2023 ninth in scoring (23.6 points per game), but the offense stagnated in big moments and clearly needed a shake-up.
"It's been two years since we had that offense that was rolling. Now, we're kind of in this rut," running back Alvin Kamara said in October 2023, per Saints Wire's John Sigler.
There is one area where Kubiak should make an immediate difference in New Orleans. At the end of last regular season, ESPN's Seth Walder shared data from ESPN Stats and Info on teams' usage of motion at the snap, and the Saints ranked 26th (14.3%), while the 49ers were third (37.7%).
Final motion report for the 2023 season!
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 16, 2024
In 2017 NFL teams put a man in motion at the snap 4% of the time, on average. In 2023 the average was 22%!
Data via @ESPNStatsInfo video tracking team. pic.twitter.com/Ar67rJ9yWE
First impressions are everything, and Carr made a bad one in New Orleans.
The Saints scored 20 points or fewer in five of their first seven games and began 3-4. Carr was a main culprit, struggling mightily in clutch situations, including third downs and in the red zone.
Per data from rbsdsm.com, among the 31 quarterbacks with at least 50 third-down plays from Weeks 1-8, Carr ranked 28th in expected points added per play. He also had an ugly 39.5 completion percentage on red-zone pass attempts during that span.
Carr improved as the season progressed, and if he starts 2024 the way he ended 2023, New Orleans should be in good shape offensively.
From Weeks 9-18, he was 16th in third-down EPA per play among qualifying quarterbacks while posting a 66.6 completion percentage on red-zone throws.
Next to quarterback Drew Brees, linebacker Demario Davis is likely the best free-agency addition in Saints franchise history.
The 12-year NFL veteran signed with the Saints in 2018 after five seasons with the Jets and one with the Browns. He's been the backbone of one of the most consistently solid units ever since.
Davis has been named either first- or second-team All-Pro in each of the past five seasons (2019-23). Even at 35, his production hasn't waned. Last year, the two-time Pro Bowler had 121 tackles, his most since 2017, and tied his career-high in sacks (6.5), which he had previously set in 2022.
And Davis isn't the only elder statesman to continue making an impact. Safety Tyrann Mathieu, 32, had four interceptions last season, his most since 2020 with the Chiefs, while defensive end Cam Jordan, 34, had 45 total pressures.
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