Pictured: Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, enters his car Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images.

NASCAR odds: Best bet pick for Sunday at Gateway

Originally posted on Action Network | By PJ Walsh | Last updated Jun 1, 2024 7:53 PM ET

I'm sure I sound like a broken record these days, but for various reasons I'm taking a conservative approach to NASCAR odds for Gateway.

Mainly, Saturday's practice session was run in temperatures much cooler than what drivers will face during Sunday's Enjoy Illinois 300 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1).

This means cars will handle differently during the race than they did in practice, so we need to take Saturday's speeds with a grain of salt.

Further, the tire combination cars will run is different than the previous two years at Gateway, and the cooler weather during practice did not give teams a clear picture of how this tire will wear in race conditions.

But NASCAR odds are NASCAR odds, and sometimes I just can't help myself.

NASCAR Odds, Pick for Gateway

*Odds as of Saturday night

We all know that Kyle Larson is arguably the best driver in the NASCAR Cup Series and has a rocket ship for a race car.

So I'm a bit surprised to see Larson sitting at -120 for a top-10 finish for Sunday's race.

I do understand this isn't his best track type, but it's not like he's been terrible here, either. In the two Cup Series races at Gateway, Larson has the fifth-best average finish.

And yes, the No. 5 Chevrolet didn't qualify at the front of the field; however, it will start a respectable 13th.

The bottom line is that Larson's -120 odds for a top-10 finish translate to a 54.55% implied probability, which seems like a bargain at essentially every Cup Series track.

The Bet: Kyle Larson Top-10 Finish (-120)

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