Golf best bets: Outright picks for the Memorial Tournament

Sam Burns gave us a bit of a sweat in the final round of the RBC Canadian Open when he crawled to two strokes back of the lead, but he couldn't make enough birdies down the stretch to catch Robert MacIntyre. We're getting closer and closer to cashing another outright ticket on the PGA Tour, and we feel good about our chances at the Memorial Tournament at the iconic Muirfield Village Golf Club.

The Memorial should play similarly to the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club, another Jack Nicklaus-designed course. You'll need an impeccable tee-to-green game to win this event in a loaded field, so we're targeting supreme ball-strikers who can go toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele.

Ludvig Aberg (+2200 DraftKings)

We like Collin Morikawa a ton near the top of the board, but he's already been bet down to 14/1. That's too rich for our blood, so let's move to the next tier and fire a bullet on Ludvig Aberg.

This is a perfect golf course for the talented Swede. Muirfield Village demands length and accuracy off the tee and strong long-iron play, and those just happen to be Aberg's greatest strengths. Aberg ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in total driving, third in proximity on approach, 15th in approaches from 175-200 yards and 15th in approaches from 200-225 yards. 

There are only two worries with this Aberg bet. For one, he's never played Muirfield before, but he proved course history doesn't matter for him when he finished runner-up at the Masters. The other is that he missed the cut at Valhalla while wearing a knee brace. We don't know exactly how healthy he is right now, but his upside is as high as anyone's in this field. 

Justin Thomas (+2500 DK)

Justin Thomas hasn't won since his triumph at the 2022 PGA Championship, but he's starting to show signs of a return to top form. The two-time major champion is coming off a T8 finish at Valhalla in which he led the field in strokes gained from tee to green, per Data Golf. Thomas has gained strokes from off the tee, on approach and around the green in three straight starts, and he now ranks fifth on Tour this season in strokes gained from tee to green.

Muirfield is a great fit for Thomas's game on paper, but he has only three top-10 finishes in 10 career starts at this golf course. One of those finishes, though, was a runner-up in 2020 when he lost to Morikawa in a playoff. Thomas is trending in the right direction, and he's bound to break out of this winless streak soon.

Keegan Bradley (+7500 FanDuel)

After starting our card with two names near the top of the odds board, let's dig a little deeper for our third selection. 

No one on the PGA Tour is hitting his driver better than Keegan Bradley right now. Amazingly, Bradley has led the field in strokes gained from off the tee in each of his last two starts at the PGA Championship and the Charles Schwab Challenge. He's crushing his driver long and straight at a ridiculous clip, which is a great omen heading into one of the most challenging total driving tests on the schedule.

Bradley has always been a great long-iron player, and he's gained strokes from putting in back-to-back starts. If he can sync up the rest of his game with his stellar driving this week, he could take down the big dogs at Muirfield.