NHL bets: Our favorite picks for the Conn Smythe ahead of the Stanley Cup Final

When we last navigated the Conn Smythe market, we liked the value on Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman on Edmonton, and Matthew Tkachuk for Florida.

Things have certainly changed a bit since the beginning of the Conference Finals, and it's time to take stock of the board and consider angles to wager on before puck drops for Game 1 on Saturday night.

Betting favorites to win Conn Smythe Award

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings

1. Connor McDavid (+220)
2. Sergei Bobrovsky (+450)
3. Aleksander Barkov (+450)
4. Matthew Tkachuk (+550)
5. Leon Draisaitl (+950)

At this stage, the breakdown is quite simple. We have a clear favorite in McDavid, who should Edmonton wins feel all but certain to take home Conn Smythe honors. 

The Florida end is a bit more jumbled, meaning that the next few games will tell us a lot and likely determine who wins the award should the Panthers take home the Cup.

As a reminder, the Conn Smythe Award is a cumulative honor that awards the entire postseason resume. That means we do have some data already to fall back on, but in some cases, as we'll get to, it's what come next that will ultimately determine this winner.

Our picks

Connor McDavid +220

At this stage we'd argue there's absolutely no reason to bet Edmonton to win the Stanley Cup at +110, when you can simply bet on McDavid to win the Conn Smythe at +220.

It's grown extremely hard to see a world where the Oilers win it all and McDavid isn't honored in this capacity.

While the goals have been few and far between, it doesn't matter. McDavid's 31 points tops the team, and his 26 assists are arguably more impressive than any goal numbers we're seeing from his teammates.

The reason Edmonton is here is because what McDavid creates for them offensively. Zach Hyman has so many goals and so many high-danger scoring chances because he has the benefit of skating next to McDavid.

The Oilers captain is also starting to pick up his shooting, so we do think a few more goals are likely coming to all but solidify his spot as the Conn Smythe favorite on Edmonton.

McDavid would have to all but shut down his points production to not win this award, and in such a world, how are the Oilers possibly winning the Stanley Cup if McDavid does not perform?