Why signs point to Chase Elliott earning first road-course win with Next Gen car

From 2018 to 2021, Chase Elliott was considered NASCAR's road-course king.

With seven road-course wins in four seasons, he was always considered the favorite whenever NASCAR traversed the twists and turns of those tracks. 

Elliott, however, is winless on road courses in the Next Gen car since the vehicle debuted in 2022, but a race at the Sonoma (Calif.) Raceway in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 may change that. 

2024 has seen a return to form for Elliott, who won five races and made his third consecutive Championship Four appearance in 2022. 2023 was a season marred by injury and a suspension, but after missing the playoffs last season, the 28-year-old driver is the most consistent in the Cup Series and even got back to victory lane at Texas Motor Speedway. 

While Elliott "only" has seven top-10 finishes in the Cup Series' first 15 races this season, he doesn't have a finish worse than 19th and has a championship-level average finish of 9.9. 

Sitting third in the regular-season standings, 27 points back of leader Denny Hamlin, Elliott should be focused on gathering playoff points as the schedule heats up this summer. 

Sonoma is one of the lone road courses that Elliott has failed to conquer in his young Cup Series career, but he has the best average finish (12.1) of all active Cup Series drivers at the California road course. In seven Sonoma starts, Elliott has collected three top-fives, five top-10s and led 49 laps. 

While Elliott will certainly have stiff competition Sunday from the likes of Joe Gibbs Racing, 23XI Racing and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates — William Byron and Kyle Larson — all signs point to Elliott finally reclaiming a road-course crown that has changed hands multiple times since his last trip to victory lane. 

Elliott has proved he can win in the Next Gen car, but reassessing road courses has led to more parity when NASCAR chooses to turn left and right.

Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr. and A.J. Allmendinger have taken advantage of Elliott's relative struggles to snag road-course wins. A return to form for the man who once was far and away NASCAR's best road-course racer should make the garage area shudder.

Elliott has checked all the boxes in what was looked at as a redemption season, and his first road-course win with NASCAR's seventh-generation car would only be the cherry on top of a season that's seen a perennial title contender reassert himself as one of NASCAR's best.