NASCAR playoff bubble primer: Which drivers will rise, fall at Sonoma?

With only 11 races remaining in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, the bubble battle for the 16-driver playoff is starting to heat up. 

Only nine drivers are locked into the playoffs through the first 15 events of the season, so the field is wide open.

Here's a look at the bubble drivers heading into Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 road-course race at the Sonoma (Calif.) Raceway:

14. Ryan Blaney (+47 above cutline) 

Blaney snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in St. Louis last Sunday, running out of gas on the final lap and handing the win to his Penske teammate, Austin Cindric. 

Relegated to a 24th-place finish in St. Louis, Blaney and the No. 12 team have no choice but to forge on at Sonoma. Blaney hasn't been flashy on road courses in his career — his only road-course win came at the Charlotte Roval in 2018 — but he has finished top-10 in four of his seven Sonoma starts. Expect Blaney to still be solidly above the cut line after Sonoma. 

15. Bubba Wallace (+13) 

Wallace remains above the cutline despite a poor showing in St. Louis, where he finished 21st, but don't be surprised if he ends up below it after Sonoma. Although he has improved on road courses over the past two seasons, they remain his weakest link.

In five starts at Sonoma, Wallace has an abysmal average finish of 24.4. Any finish inside the top 15 would be considered a fantastic day for Wallace, who must drastically improve on road courses to be considered a championship contender. 

16. Chris Buescher (+10)

If either Kansas or Darlington went Buescher's way, he'd be locked into the playoffs and would have two wins. However, he sits as the last driver in the Cup Series playoffs. 

Sonoma has been good to Buescher with the Next Gen car, however, as he owns finishes of second and fourth in the two Next Gen Sonoma races. Buescher is probably Ford's best chance to win Sunday, and if he breaks through, he'll be locked into the playoffs for the second year in a row. 

17. Chase Briscoe (-10 below cutline)

Road courses usually tend to be Briscoe's best showings in the Cup Series, but Sonoma has proved to be difficult for him. Briscoe's average finish is a pedestrian 19.7 in wine country, but the possible struggles of Bubba Wallace — as well as the three drivers directly below him — should keep him as the first driver outside the postseason picture. 

18. Joey Logano (-14) 

A fifth-place effort at Gateway boosted Logano, who continues to struggle to find consistent speed. The two-time champ owns a road-course win at Watkins Glen in 2015, but that was a lifetime ago.

St. Louis winner Austin Cindric will likely be Penske's best chance at victory. Don't count on Logano to be in contention for the win Sunday, but don't be surprised if he wiggles his way into the top-10 finish. 

19. Kyle Busch (-20)

Busch followed a crash at St. Louis on Sunday with a crash at Indianapolis on Tuesday during a tire test. Needless to say, it has not been a good week — or year — for the two-time Cup Series champ.

However, Sonoma could be a respite for Busch and the No. 8 team, as it was Sonoma in 2015 that provided a spark that ignited Busch's path to the championship.

With nine top-10s in 18 Sonoma starts and a Truck Series win at the track in 2022, Busch could be a factor Sunday. If he isn't, he may fall out of the top 20 as the field heads to the Iowa Speedway for the Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol on June 16. 

20. Josh Berry (-104)

Berry is in no-man's land when it comes to the playoffs. He was serviceable at road courses last season in the Xfinity Series with four top-10 finishes in seven starts, but he likely won't be a contender at Sonoma. If he can stay in the top 20 after Sunday, the short-track ace will have a big opportunity at the  Iowa Speedway on June 16.