Mavericks vs. Celtics Game 2 prediction: NBA Finals expert pick, odds for Sun. 6/9

Mavericks vs. Celtics Odds

Sunday, June 9, 8 p.m. ET, ABC

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Dallas Mavericks

Dallas looked stuck in the mud offensively in Game 1, but a lot of that was a result of Boston’s defensive game plan. The Celtics avoided blitzing, as they have all season, changing schemes, switching and sprinkling in drop coverage. A big problem for the Mavericks came from their struggles to hit shots when Boston switched and an inability to take advantage of the drop coverage with shooting.

Kyrie Irving in particular struggled from the field, thanks to Jrue Holiday’s tough defense. Holiday’s ability to fight over screens, lock in on Irving and take away space for him to operate was a big part of the Celtics' success defensively. The brilliance of Holiday’s defensive performance wasn’t just the lack of scoring from Irving — who was 6-for-19 from the field and 0-for-5 from 3 — it was the ability to take away the other aspects of Irving's game that make him effective when his shot isn’t falling. Irving had just two assists and zero free-throw attempts. The Mavs will look to get him more involved in Game 2, but I struggle to see this being a high-scoring series for him regardless of the Dallas mix-ups.

The Celtics also did a great job of taking away the corner 3 — another staple of their defensive schematics all season. The Mavs got off just four corner 3s in Game 1, and that’s something they will likely try to remedy for Game 2. But they’ll need to get more 3-point looks of all kinds if they want to compete with Boston’s high-powered offense.

The Mavs' 27 3-point attempts in Game 1 is tied for their second-lowest of the season, including the postseason. P.J. Washington could be the benefactor of any changes made by Dallas, and his 3s line is a bit low for Game 2.

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Boston Celtics

The big storyline heading into Game 1 was the health status of Kristaps Porzingis, who missed the previous two rounds with a calf strain. The Latvian big man’s unique ability to stretch the floor and protect the rim is a big part of why I liked Boston coming into this series, and that certainly hasn’t changed after seeing what happened in Game 1. I imagine the biggest adjustment coming into Game 2 will be a way to mitigate Porzingis’ effectiveness, though it will be tough. His skillset is exactly what unlocks this Celtics offense and sends it from elite to god-mode. His 3-point line is a touch low at 1.5 despite the juice.

Jayson Tatum is another key factor in this series, but not necessarily for his scoring. The Celtics have plenty of ways they can score without the need for Tatum to drop 25 points a night. His size and ability to crash the boards makes him the most important Celtic, despite what Jason Kidd says about Jaylen Brown being Boston's best player.

The Celtics' offense is most potent when Tatum is a willing passer and playmaker, distributing to any of their four other shooters on the floor. And throughout the playoffs, Tatum’s playmaking has elevated. He’s brought his assists average from 4.9 in the regular season to 5.9 in the playoffs on +1.2 potential assists. The Celtics' offense is truly at its best when Tatum is dishing. Since the 2022 playoffs, the Celtics are 32-11 when Tatum has five or more assists and just 6-10 when he has four or fewer, according to StatMuse.

Mavericks vs. Celtics

Betting Pick & Prediction

I’m staying away from a side or total in Game 2. I was on the Celtics and the Over in Game 1 and we saw that get steamed up from the opening number of 214 all the way to 217.5 by tipoff. I still like the Over, as I think the best adjustments for Dallas are pace-related. But I’ll stick to some player props for Game 2 based on some things we saw.

First, my biggest play will be Irving to go under his points line. He has the toughest matchup of the series with Holiday and Derrick White, and Boston demonstrated they’re not willing to give him an easy series, even at the expense of high-scoring Luka Doncic performances.

Second, I think the Mavericks need to shoot more 3s, and I think Washington will be the biggest benefactor of that adjustment. The Celtics will continue to shoot, especially Porzingis. I like both big men to clear their 3s line of 1.5.

In these playoffs, the Celtics are 2-1 but 1-2 ATS when Tatum gets fewer than five assists. Not quite enough of a bellwether for me to bet a same-game parlay, but I’ll be monitoring his playmaking in the series and a same-game parlay could be in my future if we see a noticeable trend there. I will take Tatum’s rebounds + assists line at 15.5 since I see a lot of upside in both categories.

Pick: Kyrie Irving Under 23.5 Points (1u) | P.J. Washington Over 1.5 3s (.35u) | Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 3s (.35u) | Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (.35u)