Golf best bets: 2 long shots to target at the U.S. Open

Like Muirfield Village, Pinehurst No. 2 is a demanding approach course in which players must hit specific sections of these "turtleback" greens to hold the surface. This golf course produces a ton of long-iron approach shots, and Hadwin ranks third on Tour this season in approaches from 175-200 yards. 

The 36-year-old also has great touch around the greens, as he's gained strokes with his chipping in eight straight starts. Getting up and down from awkward spots is going to be crucial this week, and Hadwin has the soft hands to do just that. 

Top-20 finish: +400; Top-40 finish: +165

Aaron Rai (+25000 FD)

When you think about the best iron players on the PGA Tour, Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas are typically the first names that come to mind. Well, it's time to throw Aaron Rai on that list.

Rai has been absolutely on fire with his irons. The Englishman ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in greens in regulation percentage, seventh in strokes gained on approach, seventh in proximity and ninth in approaches from 200-plus yards. He's gained nearly 15 true strokes on approach alone over his last four starts. Rai is also deadly accurate with his driver, as he ranks ninth on Tour in driving accuracy. In his last start at the RBC Canadian Open, Rai hit 44 of 56 fairways to lead the field.

With sandy waste areas and clumpy wiregrass surrounding the fairways and greens at Pinehurst, the players who can keep their ball in the short stuff the most often are going to have success this week. That's Rai's game to a tee. Coming off five straight top-40 finishes, Rai is set up for his best career finish in a major this week. 

Top-20 finish: +400; Top-40 finish: +110