Euro 2024 best bets: Croatia's last dance?

And finally, we close things out in Cologne with Switzerland and Scotland. The Swiss entered this tournament as alsorans but proved their bonafides with a strong Matchday One victory over Hungary; Scotland entered this tournament with plenty of excitement but lost all of it after a 5-1 hammering at the hands of the Germans. Where Hungary's advancement situation is tricky, Scotland's is properly dire: it needs wins and goals to make up for its terrible result on opening day.

Phew. It's all too stressful to handle. Quick, let's regroup with another look at that gorgeous Arda Guler goal from yesterday:

Aaaaah. Doesn't that make everything feel better?

Croatia vs. Albania, Germany vs. Hungary and Switzerland vs. Scotland await us. Where are the best bets? We think they're here:

Croatia's shot diversity. Croatia's 3-0 loss at the hands of the Spaniards broke records in all the wrong ways: it was Croatia's biggest Euro defeat and the first time ever that Spain won while losing the possession battle so significantly. But it wasn't all bad for Croatia. Beyond the final score, Croatia's metrics actually looked pretty good: it delivered 16 shots, five of which were on target, and over 500 passes at an 88% accuracy rating. 

Lots of Croatian players made it up into Spain's box for attacks, and that's an interesting trend for bettors: the 'shots on target' odds only favor Croatia's strikers, but it's clear that those shots can come from elsewhere. We're backing right-back Josip Stanisic to have at least one shot on target at +400 for that reason. He pulled that off easily against Spain; he shouldn't have trouble delivering similar numbers against Albania's weaker defense.

Hungary's weak central defense. When Switzerland unexpectedly beat Hungary earlier this week, it did so by being very direct: both of its goals came from straight down the center of the field as opposed to the wings. Hungary struggled to track the Swiss attackers in the middle and never quite knew where their shots would come from.

With Germany on the horizon, Hungary's weak central defense is in trouble. If Switzerland's unheralded attackers were able to break through, then Germany's out-and-out striker Niclas Fullkrug should do so with ease. Füllkrug tends to come on late; we're backing him as the game's final goalscorer at +400.

Switzerland's surprise factor. Switzerland's FC Augsburg-based attacker Ruben Vargas isn't well known on the international circuit, but he ran the show in its opening match against Hungary and was our clear choice for MVP. We're expecting big things from Vargas against Scotland and are backing him as an anytime goalscorer at +350.

That's it for our June 19 triple header: Croatia will face Albania at 9 a.m. ET, Germany will face Hungary at 12 p.m. ET and Switzerland will face Scotland at 3 p.m. ET. See you there!