Did the Spurs make a genius trade with the Timberwolves?

Minnesota star Anthony Edwards’ contract runs through the 2028-29 season, so he could leave small-market Minnesota as an unrestricted free agent by 2029. This potential departure could lead to the T-Wolves plummeting in the standings and turn the 2030 first-round pick into a lottery pick, adding significant value to the Spurs' future draft assets.

By 2031, San Antonio star Victor Wembanyama will be in his seventh year in the NBA, a crucial season when many great players historically win their first championships. Michael Jordan won his first title in his seventh season, Shaquille O'Neal in his eighth and LeBron James in his ninth. 

This pattern continued in the 2024 NBA Finals. Boston stars Jayson Tatum and Derrick White earned their first rings in their seventh seasons, while teammates Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis earned theirs in their eighth seasons. This means four starters on the 2024 championship Celtics secured their first titles in seasons 7 or 8.

Additionally, Dallas' Luka Doncic made his first Finals appearance in his sixth season.

This trend indicates that many great players typically need six to eight seasons for their championship window to open.

The Spurs' multiple 2029, 2030 and 2031 picks align perfectly with this championship window. 

If Edwards leaves Minnesota, the 2031 pick could be as valuable as a top-five selection. That pick could secure a top prospect or serve as a valuable trade asset, providing the Spurs, who finished 22-60 last season, with flexibility and potential to build around Wembanyama.

This strategic trade in the 2024 draft underscores the Spurs' forward-thinking approach. By sacrificing a current asset for future potential, they have positioned themselves to capitalize on a critical championship window. 

The move anticipates the possible shifts in player movements and team dynamics while aligning with the historical patterns of championship successes in the NBA. The Spurs' foresight could pay significant dividends, making this trade a potentially genius maneuver in their long-term strategy.