NBA futures: Division bets for the Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

This is a stacked division, with: the returning champs in Boston, alongside the two teams with arguably the biggest additions this offseason in Paul George and the Sixers plus Mikal Bridges and the Knicks.

However, for my money, I want to run it back. 

I’m skeptical of the Knicks and Sixers for differing reasons. For Philly, the question is—unsurprisingly—the health of Joel Embiid and Paul George. And here it’s not so much the worst case scenario that we’re eyeing, but just the baseline floor of expected missed games. Embiid missed over half the season last year, but even in good seasons, he’s expected to miss 15-20 games. Paul George is the opposite in that he’s coming off his healthiest season, but his games played the four seasons before were: 56, 31, 54, and 48. 

This is a team that still won 47 games with Embiid missing over half the season last year, BUT this team also quietly looks a lot different than last season. By EPM, the number: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 10 players on their roster from last season are gone. The replacements look decent (and I don’t think we’re seeing the final roster yet), but between figuring out the new fits and the very likely chance that their two stars miss at least some time make me hesitant about their regular season value.

The Celtics will have an injury of their own to deal with in Kristaps Porzingis, but they were without him a chunk of last season, and their roster is farrrr more balanced and ready to sustain missing time from any of their players. Even if the elderly (lol) Al Horford misses some time, a front-court of Xavier Tillman, Neemias Queta, and Luke Kornet is actually sneaky very solid.

As for the Knicks, they will likely be one of my bigger fades—for the regular season at least. Yes, they are fresh off a season in which they won 50 games, with a Pythag of 53 wins. And yes, they added one of the most reliable wings in the game in Mikal Bridges, who just so happens to be buddies with the entire roster. However, I am incredibly nervous we start to see some of the early stages of Thibs Impact.

By the end of the postseason run, the team was basically being held together by duct tape. Their star is a small-bodied guard who has answered every question asked of him—at the same time, only five players in the league played more combined minutes last regular and postseason. And one of those five was his teammate, Josh Hart, who was also showing signs of slowing down by the end of their run.

There’s also the center issue. Isaiah Hartenstein was the Knicks second-most valuable player by EPM last season, and while Mitchell Robinson has a high ceiling when healthy, he just has never proven an ability to stay healthy. That leaves a few options that seem less than ideal and/or unlikely. Both Thibs and Randle have never really given the Randle as Center experiment much shrift, even though it looks to be a perfect solution. Thibs seemed up for OG as the five in the playoffs, but doing that during the regular season is a recipe for an oft-hurt player to get there quicker. Jericho Sims has shown flashes but that’s about it. They could bring back Precious Achiuwa, but they turned down his qualifying offer, so he’d have to be up for a pay cut.

This might seem to be nitpicking, but when the competition has as high a floor as Boston, it’s going to take everything breaking right to dethrone the defending champs in the Atlantic.

However, because the Celtics are odds-on favorites, this number isn’t going to move like crazy before we actually get to the season. Let’s see if any of the many players Boston is sending to France pick up injuries, how the Knicks and Sixers potentially fill their open roster spots, and grab what should be right around the same price right before the season starts.

Best Bet: Celtics -155 (ESPN BET, but wait until close to season)

Southeast Division

This was easily my most profitable division in 2023-24, as I have long been higher on the Magic than the market. I was also lower on the Heat than the market last season, which allowed me time and time again to hit a Magic division ticket that was never being priced right the entire season.

And for 2024-25, I see no reason to run it back. 

The Magic are now the (rightful) favorite, thanks to an offseason in which they added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, while the Heat have really only lost Caleb Martin. I’ll be on Orlando to win the division, but similar to the Celtics, I want to wait until close to the season, so as not to tie up my money for an unnecessary three months.

As such, it’s another team—and number—that is catching my eye.

I can’t believe I’m falling for it again… but the Hawks are +3100 to win the Southeast right now at FanDuel, and that’s just a wild number For one, basically every other book has it around +1200 or so. And while that’s only a few percentage points off in implied odds, that’s obviously a massive gap in payout, which is the trick to these longshots.

Have the Hawks trended down for four straight season after their breakout 2020-21 season? Yes. Did they trade their second-biggest name this offseason? Yes. Am I still super intrigued by them?! Also yes!

I was high on the Hawks before last season as well, as I wanted to see what a full season with Quin Snyder at the helm would look like. The team got off to a very pedestrian start, then suffered some key injuries, and seemed to be totally fine letting go of the rope late.

Yes, they will be without Dejounte Murray this season, but to be honest that fit was never as strong as it looked on paper, mostly because Murray fell off notably on the defensive end during his actual time in Atlanta. In Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance Jr., the Hawks get two very strong defensive pieces, which will be key for a team that had the 27th-ranked defensive rating last year.

Because this is +3100, this is also a bit of a ceiling play. And a full season of Jalen Johson would do wonders for the Hawks. I named a whole theory after Johnson, as I find him one of the most impactful under-the-radar players in the league. 

Both Johnson and Trae Young saw their impact numbers tail off a bit down the stretch, but at 31:1, I’m willing to put a little bit on the possibility of a fresh start being a meaningful difference in a division where I still like the Magic, but there’s far from a true juggernaut.

Best Bet: Hawks +3100 (FanDuel)

Best Bet: Magic -110 (Bet365, but can wait)