Insiders predict potential penalty for Michigan for Connor Stalions scandal

The NCAA loves to take things away after the fact. Just ask the USC Trojans and Reggie Bush. At least, the latter had restored his Heisman Trophy honor — just 14 years after the fact but oh, well.

That's why some in the college football world are wondering if the Michigan Wolverines might see their 2023 national championship and perfect season vacated due to the Connor Stalions sign-stealing scandal.

The NCAA is going to soon deliver Michigan a Notice of Allegations and we know, based on the draft (which can be edited, mind you), that former head coach Jim Harbaugh as well as several other staffers will likely be accused of committing Level 1 violations. The school itself is also facing a Level 1 charge because of a "pattern of noncompliance within the football program" and even new head coach Sherrone Moore could face a show-cause penalty and even a suspension for allegedly deleting 52 text messages between him and Stalions in October of 2023.

There's a ton of smoke here, so there could very well be a big fire in Ann Arbor, but it's worth noting that college football insiders Rece Davis and Pete Thamel, speaking on "The College GameDay Podcast", don't think either a postseason ban or a vacating of the national title will be on the line here for Michigan.

“So the vacating thing I can say with full-throated confidence,” Thamel said (h/t On3). “They take away wins when it involves players who aren’t eligible. And there are no players implicated in here directly by name or anything. Looking back there will be nothing. Looking forward, you could say, technically, some type of postseason ban is on the table. The actual likelihood of that happening [is low] considering Tennessee, considering the political climate, considering the NCAA has basically come out and said, ‘We don’t want to punish them.' So again, it comes down to a roomful of people … I would say looking at this, it would seem unlikely. What is likely as Michigan cuts a big old check.”

That's what it all comes down to, at the end of the day. College football is a big business (always has been) and money talks — especially when it's being taken away.

“That is what the punishments should be, in my judgment,” Davis said. “I’ve said this for years. What drives this enterprise? Money. What sends the biggest message? Taking away money. So if the NCAA wants to be taken seriously consistently as an enforcement body for college sports and college football, particularly, that needs to be the direction in which they go. Fine people. They can do the show cause thing."

It's worth noting that Harbaugh, now head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers after nine seasons in Ann Arbor, denied being complicit in or having any awareness of the allegations levied against Michigan while he was head coach.