Stunning stat shows how Pirates are slipping out of playoff contention

Realistically speaking the Pittsburgh Pirates playoff chances have probably slipped away. Especially after a 1-5 home stand against the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres that concluded on Thursday afternoon with another crushing 7-6 loss to the latter, concluding a three-game sweep. 

It is not just that the Pirates have lost a bunch of games to teams they are chasing to fall to four games out of a playoff spot with four teams standing between them. It is the way they keep losing games in gut-punch fashion, seemingly finding new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory every day.

The biggest culprit continues to be a bullpen that keeps blowing late leads. 

It happened again on Thursday when closer David Bednar blew his second consecutive save in the top of the ninth inning, giving up three runs in their latest loss.  

For the Pirates, it is the eighth consecutive loss in which a relief pitcher has taken the loss on the stat sheet.

You have to go all the way back to July 23 — a stretch of 13 games — to find the last time a Pirates starting pitcher was actually tagged with a loss. In that loss Paul Skenes allowed just two runs while pitching into the ninth inning. 

Stunningly, the Pirates have won just five of those 13 games due to collapse after collapse from their bullpen.

Colin Holderman alone has taken four of those losses, while Bednar and Aroldis Chapman have all contributed blown saves.

But when you dig even deeper into the defeats it becomes even more frustrating for the Pirates and their fans. Let's just take this latest home stand as an example where they won just one out of six games.

In four of those five losses the Pirates had a win probability of 77% or higher in the seventh inning or later, including back-to-back ninth inning leads. That simply can not happen. Especially against teams that you are chasing in the standings. 

When the 2024 season began the Pirates expected their bullpen to be one of their biggest strengths with the trio of Holderman, Chapman and Bednar being counted on to lock down leads and shorten games. Those three have been a wild disappointment. 

Only the Chicago White Sox have blown more saves than the Pirates this season. It is a complete waste of what has been one of the league's best starting rotations.