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Two dark-horse NFL playoff contenders in each conference
Last season, the Houston Texans made an unexpected run to the AFC divisional round after finishing with the second-worst record in the league a season prior. No team may make as significant of a leap as Houston made in 2023, but there will undoubtedly be at least one new team in the playoffs this season.
With that in mind, here are two teams in each conference that could be dark-horse contenders to reach the playoffs this season:
AFC
Tennessee Titans
The AFC South should be one of the more fascinating divisions to monitor, as every team has a playoff-caliber roster. After becoming one of the NFL's most improved teams in the offseason, Tennessee has an opportunity to contend for a wild-card spot.
Last season, Tennessee finished 6-11, with the offense finishing 27th in points and 28th in yardage, while the defense ranked 16th in points allowed and 18th in yards allowed. Despite those lackluster rankings, it's worth noting the Titans lost six one-possession games last season, suggesting they could turn things around dramatically in 2024 with better execution and play-calling.
In addition to replacing Mike Vrabel with the offensive-minded Brian Callahan as head coach, Tennessee filled some of its biggest holes on both sides of the ball this offseason. The Titans notably added WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, running back Tony Pollard, center Lloyd Cushenberry III and first-round rookie tackle JC Latham. Tennessee bolstered its secondary defensively, bringing in CBs L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie and safeties Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams.
The play of second-year quarterback Will Levis will largely determine the outcome of Tennessee's season, but his revamped supporting cast should help him flourish. The revamped offensive line led by new O-line coach Bill Callahan, in particular, could make all the difference, considering the unit allowed the fourth-most sacks in the NFL last season (64).
Los Angeles Chargers
Could new HC Jim Harbaugh lead the Chargers to the playoffs in what is expected to be the first season of an extensive rebuilding process? It's a long shot but not impossible, especially since Los Angeles has the second-easiest schedule based on projected win totals, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
Although star QB Justin Herbert is already out for the entire preseason with a plantar fascia injury, the 26-year-old should be ready for Los Angeles' season opener. If the injury doesn't linger or limit his performance, Herbert should return to Pro Bowl form, even if his stats don't reflect it.
Losing wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason wasn't ideal. However, their departures might not be catastrophic because Los Angeles will rely heavily on the run game this season. The Chargers added several pieces to accommodate their new offensive philosophy, signing RBs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins and center Bradley Bozeman in free agency and selecting OT Joe Alt in the draft. Los Angeles' defense will still be the team's weakest link, but the unit could at least be competent with better coaching.
The coaching upgrade in Los Angeles cannot be understated. Under former HC Brandon Staley and ex-interim HC Giff Smith, the Chargers posted a dismal 3-8 record in one-possession games last season. With Harbaugh, who went 44-19-1 in four seasons as San Francisco's head coach, Los Angeles should at least find itself playing in meaningful games late in the season.
NFC
Chicago Bears
Some may not consider the Bears much of a dark-horse playoff contender anymore, given their solid finish to 2023 and a slew of high-profile offseason acquisitions that have helped them generate buzz. Even so, as arguably the third-best team in the NFC North, Chicago meets the criteria for a dark horse.
After a disappointing 2-6 start last season, the Bears acquired edge-rusher Montez Sweat from the Washington Commanders. Chicago made the move to brighten the team's future, but Sweat instantly improved the defense, helping the Bears finish 5-4 over their final nine games.
Assuming the defense performs at a similar level as it did after the trade deadline, the new-look Bears offense should have enough firepower to help the team improve on last season's 7-10 record. Chicago went all-in on offense this offseason to ensure QB Caleb Williams has a successful rookie season, bringing in Allen, RB D'Andre Swift and first-round wideout Rome Odunze. With Allen and Odunze joining forces with D.J. Moore, Williams will have a top-five wide receiver corps at his disposal.
If Williams, the most polarizing No. 1 overall draft pick in recent memory, can deliver a C.J. Stroud-like rookie season, Chicago could reach the postseason and win a playoff game.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints appeared to be a potential playoff threat early in 2023, but injuries to quarterback Derek Carr contributed to the team stumbling in the middle of the season and ultimately missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record.
However, New Orleans rattled off four wins in its final five games — Carr's healthiest stretch of the season — providing optimism for the team's 2024 outlook as long as the four-time Pro Bowler stays healthy. During that span, Carr threw for an NFL-high 14 touchdowns, more than half of his 2023 total, and just two interceptions. With new OC Klint Kubiak coming over from San Francisco, Carr should have a more productive season passing.
Due to salary cap constraints, the roster is largely unchanged compared to last season, though the team still added intriguing pieces this offseason. In free agency, the Saints signed edge-rusher Chase Young to a one-year deal, adding depth to a defense that should be a top-10 unit in 2024 after ranking eighth in points and 13th in yards allowed last season. In the draft, the Saints spent their first two picks on LT Taliese Fuaga and CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, both of whom should be starters.
New Orleans should benefit from having the easiest schedule in the NFL based on its opponents' 2023 records (131-158). It'll be interesting to see whether the team can capitalize on its favorable situation and, in turn, get HC Dennis Allen off the hot seat.
More must-reads:
- Former NFL coach makes shocking claim about 2023 Eagles
- Forgotten RB shines in Giants' first preseason game
- The '2023 NFL AP second-team All-Pro' quiz
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