20 CFB coaches on the hot seat entering the 2024 season

Aranda barely hung on to his job after last season. The Bears went 3-9 in 2023 and has had just one winning season in four years under Aranda's leadership. That 2021 season (Baylor went 12-2 and won the Sugar Bowl) sits there as a carrot that this program can succeed under him, but they've steadily gotten worse. In a reconfigured Big 12, he must turn this program around or he will be replaced -- possibly mid-season. That's how hot his seat is. 

Brown is a lifer of New England football. He played at Norwich and has coached at Hartford, Dartmouth, Yale, Plymouth State, Brown, Northeastern, UConn, Boston College and UMass (he has also coached at Maryland, Michigan and Arizona). He was wildly successful in his first stint at UMass, where he had two 10+ win seasons when the Minutemen were an FCS program. He returned in 2022 to take over a program floundering as an FBS independent (the Minutemen will join the MAC in 2025) but has gone just 4-20. That would be an alarming record if it wasn't for the fact that UMass has gone 20-92 in the ten years before his return. Brown probably has a long leash but as the program is set to enter the MAC they probably don't want another 3-9 ... or worse ... season. 

I usually don't like putting a coach in his second season on the hot seat, but Kenni Burns' first season at Kent State was that bad. The Golden Flash went 1-11, their worst season since going 0-11 in 1998. Burns' predecessor, Sean Lewis, went 2-10 in his first year and followed it up with a 7-6 season and a bowl win so there is some history of coaching turning around their fortunes. However, Burns didn't inherit a mess like Lewis did. Kent State was awful last season -- their only win was over FCS Central Connecticut, they failed to score more than 10 points in a game six times, lost seven games by at least 20 points, and lost four games by at least 30 points. Another horrific season and they could cut Burns loose. 

This is a pivotal season for Timmy Chang and Hawaii. The former Rainbow Warrior quarterback legend is entering Year 3 of a four-year deal where he's seen steady improvement -- going from a dismal 3-10 mark in 2022 to 5-8 last year. They got to five wins after winning 3 of their last four games to end the season and salvaging a 2-7 start. While Hawaii isn't an elite Group of 5 program, they certainly feel they are better than going 8-18 over the last two years and going three years without a bowl bid. Chang was a feel-good hire after Todd Graham's controversial tenure and exit but there needs to be results on the field. 

Obviously, that little 10-year, $80M contract that Miami used to lure Cristobal from Oregon to South Florida will factor into his job security, but there is a lot for fans to be upset about. For one, the promise of winning ways just hasn't happened yet in Coral Gables -- the Hurricanes have posted 5-7 and 7-6 records in his first two seasons, which is worse than the last two seasons of the Manny Diaz era. Secondly, Cristobal's coaching decisions have been controversial, to say the least. His decision not to take a knee and secure a victory over Georgia Tech (they ended up losing) was panned by everyone who had ever watched a football game before. As I mentioned, Miami fired a guy who was performing better than this in order to bring Cristobal in, so he needs to begin to show fans that this program is in the right direction. With so much craziness going on with conference realignment, Miami doesn't want to lose its juice as a power program. 

Cumbie was an up-and-coming offensive coordinator when he got the head job at Louisiana Tech in 2022, but the Bulldogs have yet to find success. The Bulldogs have gone 3-9 in each of his two seasons at the helm and the offense has looked lackluster and the defense dreadful. This program is miles away from the one that ended six straight seasons with bowl wins (2014-2019), including beating the Miami Hurricanes in the 2019 Independence Bowl. A fourth straight losing season (something that hasn't happened in Ruston since the early 1990s) and Cumbie could be out. 

Personally, I find it ridiculous that Day would be anywhere near this list. He is 56-8 at Ohio State, including winning 39 of his 42 Big Ten games. He has finished in the top ten of the AP rankings in all five of his full seasons, including being in the top four three times and reaching the College Football Playoff three times and one national championship game. There is no reason that Day should be on a hot seat list like this. But the reality is that all that success is not enough for a large swath of Buckeye fans who point to three straight losses to Michigan and some underwhelming performances in the College Football Playoff ... and bowl games in general. With Jim Harbaugh leaving Michigan for the Los Angeles Chargers, those fans are expecting Day to take care of the Wolverines when they meet again this November (though Michigan's new head coach, Sherrone Moore, was the interim head coach when they beat Ohio State last season). It isn't just Harbaugh's departure that has Ohio State fans salivating; Chip Kelly is the new offensive coordinator, the Buckeyes absolutely nailed the transfer portal and are killing it on the high school recruiting trail. Talent is not an issue. So with all those things pointing at the Buckeyes in a championship-or-bust mode, Day cannot let them down yet again. Could he?

Look, Temple is a difficult job. Having said that, going 3-9 in each of your first two seasons isn't what the school had in mind when they hired the former Texas assistant head coach in 2022. The Owls won just two of their first 16 conference games under Drayton and would likely need to flirt with a six-win season (again, the bar is low there) for him to keep his job. 

The Cavaliers have been awful under Elliott. In two seasons, Virginia has gone 6-16 and have won just three ACC games. The last time we saw the Cavs on a football field they were getting destroyed at home by rival Virginia Tech, 55-17. Obviously Elliott was instrumental in guiding the program through tragedy in December 2023 and the university will forever be grateful to him for that. But if the team can't improve on the football field this season, it may be time to move on. With a tough second half of the schedule (Louisville, Clemson, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, SMU and Virginia Tech), finding success may be too big of a task in 2024.

After a promising first season in the highly competitive Sun Belt, the Golden Eagles slipped back to another 3-9 season. That makes Southern Miss just 13-24 under Hall, and with the gap between the have and have-nots widening in college football this isn't the best time to become irrelevant in the Group of 5. Another bad season and Hall is likely replaced. 

Houston was highly successful as James Madison's head coach when the Dukes were in the FCS. He has making steady progress in Greenville, NC with East Carolina over his first four seasons -- improving his win total each year -- until everything came crashing down in 2023. The Pirates went just 2-10, only beating FAU and Gardner-Webb, and failing to score at least 14 points six times last season. Was that just a blip or a cause for concern? Another disappointing season and Houston could feel a lot of heat. 

From 2011 to 2019, Arkansas State went to a bowl and was one of the top programs in the Sun Belt Conference. Granted, the Sun Belt has added some terrific programs, but the Red Wolves have fallen on hard times. Jones has guided over a program that has gone 11-26 in his three seasons -- all losing campaigns. Arkansas State did reach the Camellia Bowl last season (they lost to Northern Illinois) which probably saved his job. The former Cincinnati and Tennessee head coach was expected to lift the Red Wolves back to fighting for Sun Belt titles but they haven't been close. Their current streak of four losing seasons hasn't happened in 20 years. A fifth straight one will likely cost Jones his job. 

Vanderbilt is such a tough gig that it seems as if anyone who has this job is destined to fail. That may be a slight overstatement, but Clark Lea is becoming the next in a run of coaches who have found it so difficult to win in Nashville. Over the last 40 years, only James Franklin (2012) has had a winning season in the SEC. Lea has gone 9-27 at Vanderbilt, with a 2-22 SEC record. After going 2-10 in his first season with the Commodores, Lea's bunch had a promising 5-7 mark in 2022 that included wins over Florida and Kentucky. That momentum crashed last season with another 2-10 record and winless conference season. Vandy lost their final ten games of the season with only one by less than 16 points. Another awful season and Lea could be out. If Lea can show improvement with ... say ... five wins then he should be back in 2025.

When Akron hired Moorhead before the 2022 season, they felt they had finally made an impact. After all, Moorhead was a former SEC head coach who was one of the more respected offensive minds in the country who had history with the Zips program. It couldn't get worse than the disastrous Tom Arth era (3-37 over three seasons) ... right? Well, it isn't worse, but it isn't much better. Akron has posted 2-10 records in both of Moorhead's two seasons (which matches Arth's final season). 

There were high hopes when Napier arrived from Louisiana in 2022 and expectations were unmet. The Gators followed up a 6-7 with a 5-7 record last year and no bowl appearance. He's done well recruiting, but it needs to show on the field ... and that may be not easy in 2024. The Gators welcome Georgia, Ole Miss, LSU, Kentucky, Miami and Texas A&M to Gainsville while traveling to Tennessee, Texas and Florida State. This could go sideways over a brutal second half of the season. Florida needs to have a better-than-expected season for Napier to stick around. 

In eight seasons at Ball State, Mike Neu has had just one winning season -- a 7-1 mark in 2020. Outside of that one, pandemic influenced season, the Cardinals have gone just 30-55 and 18-38 in MAC play. Neu was a quarterback at Ball State in the early 1990s which has given him a lot of room from the administration to rebuild this program, but it just hasn't happened. When the AD has to make a statement justifying keeping you around, your seat is pretty warm. 

Pittman didn't walk into a stellar situation to begin with, but his results have still been ... meh. He's 23-25 in Fayetteville but has won 11 of 34 SEC games over four seasons, including just one in 2023. This is a retooling season for the Razorbacks as QB K.J. Jefferson transferred out and the SEC is ditching divisions so this will be yet another strong schedule. It is possible that showing progress would be enough to keep his job, but Pittman may need to get to 7 or 8 wins to save his job. 

Satterfield wasn't a very popular or inspiring hire when Cincinnati, uh, lured him away from Louisville to replace highly successful Luke Fickell. Satterfield was constantly on the hot seat in Louisville and Cardinals fans weren't too upset to see him go (especially since they reached the ACC championship game right out of the gate). Meanwhile the Bearcats went 3-9 in Satterfield's first season and just 1-8 in their first season in the Big 12. That last point deserves some understanding since Cincy made a large leap from the AAC to a power conference -- and one that's changing again in 2024. Rebounding to a 6-6 type season would likely be improvement enough to ensure confidence in Satterfield. Being a three or four-win program isn't what anyone in Cincinnati expects.

This can happen when a program makes the jump to a bigger pond. Sitake has been pretty successful at BYU, having seven winning seasons in his first eight years (including going 21-4 in 2020 and 2021) but that was when the Cougars controlled their schedule as an independent. Their first season in the Big 12 was a thud -- 5-7 and just 2-7 in league games. Sitake, a former BYU fullback, will need to make a better showing in the Cougars' second season in the conference or the administration might make the tough decision to move on. The Big 12 is changing yet again and could be wide open. 

Wilcox has had an up-and-down career at Cal, but the last four seasons have ended with a losing record. Now the Bears are off to the ACC which adds some stress to an already difficult job. He didn't have a winning conference record at any point during his seven years in the Pac-12 which makes it hard to see how he will be able to pull it off in the ACC where travel will be a concern. To be fair, Wilcox has had to run a program that was absolutely decimated by the pandemic and its aftermath as well as the destruction of the Pac-12. Money is tight in the program and maybe Wilcox's contract (he's signed through 2027) keeps him around. But this isn't a good situation.