NFL futures: Favorites to be the NFC's No. 1 seed instead of the 49ers

Green Bay Packers, +900

The Packers finished just 9-8 last year, but went on a three-game winning streak to end the regular season and had a chance of upsetting the 49ers in the divisional playoffs before McCaffrey exploded for two touchdowns. Green Bay is expected to be better this season, but it will still be an uphill battle to end the season over .500 — let alone win the division.

CBS Sports has the Packers tied for the fourth-hardest schedule in 2024, and it kicks off against the Eagles in Philadelphia — more on them a little later — where they haven't won since 2016. They are in for a particularly difficult month of November, which includes matchups against the Niners and Miami Dolphins plus two games against the division rival Detroit Lions. 

Even if the Packers can improve on their 2023 performance, topping the NFC is a longshot even at 9-1 odds.

Atlanta Falcons, +750

Surprised to see the Dirty Birds at 15-2 odds to top the NFC? It has everything to do with them having what is considered the weakest strength of schedule. However, ESPN's Dan Graziano isn't buying that argument.

"The Falcons had the easiest strength of schedule last season, too, and they went 7-10," Graziano wrote, calling the strength-of-schedule metric "bogus." "Basing such an assessment on last year's records ignores the repeatedly proven fact that the same teams aren't good every season. We don't actually know who has the toughest strength of schedule in terms of quality of opponent, because we don't know who's going to get hurt and who's going to struggle and who's going to break out."

Long story short, backing the Falcons to top the NFC isn't a great play.

Dallas Cowboys, +700

The Cowboys topped the NFC East last season. But whether they can be the best in the division again, let alone top the conference, is up for some very strong debate.

CBS Sports notes that eight players, including five starters, departed in free agency this offseason. There is still discourse between owner/GM/figurehead Jerry Jones and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who recently rejected Dallas' latest contract extension offer. And there is still contract angst involving starting quarterback Dak Prescott, who hasn't gotten Dallas into No. 1-seed territory in his career. And their schedule, which starts off with a road game against the defense-heavy Browns in Cleveland, is no cakewalk.

This isn't to say that the Cowboys can't overcome odds and remain a big threat in their division. But being better than the 49ers -- who spanked America's Team 42-10 last season -- in the whole conference is a stretch.

Detroit Lions, +600

Dan Campbell's team were the underdogs to root for in 2023 and had a shot at being the NFC's No. 1 seed down the final stretch of the regular season. They played it cool during free agency but made some additions on defense and have their core offense returning in 2024.

The Detroit Free Press' way-too-early schedule predictions have the Lions falling short against the Packers and Cowboys, which would certainly hurt their chances of being the NFC's No. 1 seed. There is potential, however, of besting both teams this season, which makes picking them to top the conference at 6-1 odds a little more appealing.

Philadelphia Eagles, +550

The Eagles were one of the last unbeaten teams to start the 2023 season, which made their epic collapse down the stretch all the more shocking. Can they rebound and challenge their NFC rivals for the top spot in the conference?

NBC Sports Philadelphia noted some concerns for the Birds heading into 2024, namely the lack of investment in linebackers and the hole in the O-line left by Jason Kelce. There is also the matter of cohesion in Nick Sirianni's coaching staff, which appeared to erode during that late-season meltdown. 

Pro Football Talk thinks Philly has a real shot at getting back on track this season, and given their relatively balanced schedule they have a shot at righting the ship. Then again, they lost to teams like the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants last season. At 11-2 odds, the Eagles are an intriguing bet to be the NFC's No. 1 seed, albeit a slightly risky one.