SMU vs. Nevada prediction, pick, odds for Sat. 8/24

Stone also didn't lose any of his top pass-catchers from last season when SMU finished as a top-10 passing attack in terms of EPA. The Mustangs should be even better in 2024 and could shred Nevada's secondary in their opener.

The run game was closer to average last season, but all three running backs return after the top two rushers — Jaylan Knighton and LJ Johnson Jr. — combined for 5.4 yards per carry.

Their offensive line, which ranked 18th in Stuff Rate Allowed and 48th in Offensive Line Yards last season, lost a couple of key contributors but picked up some Power 4 transfers. SMU now has 120 starts coming back across the line.

Defensively, the Mustangs bring back their top seven tacklers from last season after ranking fifth nationally in EPA/Play Allowed. They're stacked in the front seven but a little thin in the secondary, especially at cornerback.

However, they shouldn't be exposed too badly on Saturday against a rush-heavy attack.

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview: All New Everything

It's really going to take some time for Nevada to get its program headed in the right direction.

Offensively, it has a lot of work to do to get back to being just average.

Chubba Purdy transferred in from Nebraska to be the starter but is too banged up to play in the opener, which means last year's starter, Brendon Lewis, will get the nod at quarterback.

Lewis is a running quarterback at his core, which is what the Nevada offense will need this season.

New offensive coordinator Matt Lubick has spent the last two seasons as an analyst at Kansas, but before that, he was an offensive coordinator for Nebraska, Oregon and Washington. He favors a heavy ground attack with a lot of play-action.

The Wolf Pack bring back their top running back in Sean Dollars, but he averaged only 3.5 yards per carry behind an offensive line that ranked 128th in Offensive Line Yards a season ago.

With SMU's front seven being loaded, I have a hard time seeing how Nevada will run the ball with any success.

On top of all of that, the Pack don't return any key pass-catchers. Even if they wanted to throw the ball, they wouldn't be very successful with Lewis, who put up a 46.0 PFF passing grade last season.

Defensively, Nevada ranked outside the top 100 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush Allowed. It has nearly an entirely new secondary and a new scheme under Choate, which is a terrible combination against one of the nation's best passing attacks.

My SMU vs. Nevada Pick

SMU vs. Nevada Best Bet

Finishing Drives is the best metric we have to determine how efficient teams are at covering spreads. Last year, Nevada's offense ranked dead last in the entire country in Finishing Drives.

With an entirely new pass-catching unit, a terrible passing quarterback and an offensive line that can't block going up against an incredibly stout front seven, I have a feeling things are going to get ugly fast in Reno.

Defensively, Nevada also has to break in an entirely new secondary against a top-five passing attack from a season ago. That will compound the issues for the Wolf Pack if they can't move the ball offensively.

However, 24 points is a pretty large spread, especially for the first game of the season.

With all of the new changes for Nevada and the fact that SMU brings so many pieces back, I think the better option is to attack the Mustangs in the first half.

SMU vs. Nevada Pick: SMU 1H -13.5

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