U.S. Open men's prediction: Will one of current 'Big Three' take it down?

The U.S. Open is the final major on the tennis calendar, and this year has been a rollercoaster on the ATP Tour.

The season began with Jannik Sinner completing his rise to elite status at the Australian Open, winning his first career major title at just 22 years of age. Following his ridiculous end-of-season stretch last year, most predicted that 2024 would be the "Year of Sinner".

Then, Carlos Alcaraz happened. He won the Indian Wells Open, a Masters 1000 tournament, before completing the "surface slam" at just 21 years old by winning his first French Open in June. Of course, the Spanish phenom then proceeded to defend his Wimbledon title against Novak Djokovic, giving him four Grand Slam trophies already on his resume.

In the context of that youth movement, as well as a disastrous start to his season (by his standards), most started to count Djokovic out, claiming that Father Time had made its move on the GOAT. With the Olympics set in Paris at the site of the French Open, just about everyone and their mothers expected Alcaraz to complete the "Golden Summer Slam," capping off his two major titles with a gold medal to boot.

Like so many times before, though, Djokovic defied the odds, overcoming Alcaraz in an epic final to win his first career gold medal.

And that's where the state of men's tennis stands: the current "Big Three" of Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic are the prohibitive favorites for the most important titles in the sport, while the rest of the world's best hang around the periphery and vie for a spot in the semi-finals.

2024 U.S. Open

As for which player could win the U.S. Open, it'll probably come down to that triumvirate. Alexander Zverev held a 2-1 set lead over Alcaraz in the French Open final and Daniel Medvedev, the 2021 Open winner, was up two sets to love on Sinner at the Australian Open. Either of them, or players like Casper Ruud (ranked No. 8, three-time major final runner-up) or Stefano Tsitsipas (ranked No. 11, two-time major final runner-up) could make a legitimate run at the title.

And, of course, you can never count the US contingent on its own soil. Taylor Fritz (No. 12), Ben Shelton (No. 13), Tommy Paul (No. 14), Sebastian Korda (No. 16) and Frances Tiafoe (No. 20) form one of the strongest cores of US-born players in years at the tournament, and each of them has appeared in at least one major quarterfinal before.

While it's tempting to go against the grain, it's all but impossible not to make a chalk pick. Sinner has been the most consistent of the "Big Three" over the last 12 months, but he's only ever made one major final and his best finish was in 2022 when he lost to Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.

Djokovic is arguably the greatest player of all time (and indisputably the best hard-court player of all time), but he's had a difficult season against top-tier players and is coming off the euphoric high of finally winning a gold medal.

Alcaraz is currently dealing with an ankle issue, but he's just two years removed from his maiden slam win in New York, and he's a force to be reckoned with in the game's biggest tournaments. He'll have to get through Sinner in the semis if the draw falls the way most expect, but betting against Alcaraz at a major is starting to feel the same way it felt to bet against Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros or Roger Federer at Wimbledon.

OFFICIAL PREDICTION: Carlos Alcaraz wins his fifth Grand Slam at the 2024 U.S. Open.