The 2024 PGA Tour season comes to a close this week with the Tour Championship from the famed East Lake Golf Club. You probably know East Lake as the host of the Tour Championship for the last 20 years, but the golf course will look and play nothing like it did before. Architect Andrew Green led a restoration project at East Lake over the last year, and players are saying the course is nearly unrecognizable.
Green added more fairway bunkers and expanded water hazards to make this a more difficult test for the season finale, so players will need to be on their A-games this week. With a firm and fast golf course ready to challenge the best players in the world, let's break down our three favorite props for the Tour Championship.
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Pendrith is playing superb golf right now, and he's been doing so for four months. The Canadian has a win and 11 top-25 finishes in his last 14 starts. He's finished T5, T5, T22 and T13 in his last four events, so he's coming in with a ton of confidence this week.
Pendrith bombs the ball off the tee. He's also hitting his irons beautifully right now and is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. That's an ideal combination for racking up birdies in bunches, which is what he'll need to do at East Lake starting at 1 under par and nine strokes back of Scheffler. Even though Pendrith is starting so far off the lead, he's only two strokes back of 11th place with 72 holes in front of him. We love his upside as a player who can quickly work his way up this leaderboard, and we love the price even more.
This is a vulnerable market we're looking to target this week. Why? Well, the big favorite is Hideki Matsuyama at -165 because he's starting the tournament at 7 under par, but he withdrew from the BMW Championship last week due to a back injury. That's nothing new for Matsuyama, whose back flares up at various points throughout the year without warning.
The Japanese star can win the tournament considering how well he was playing before the injury, but he could also withdraw before hitting a single shot. We'll buy into the unknown with Adam Scott, who's coming off his best iron week since February. Scott has two runner-up finishes and two top-20s in his last four starts, and his putter has been on fire for more than a month. The Australian will begin four strokes back of Matsuyama, but he's playing well enough to catch the favorite if he doesn't withdraw first.
We're surprised Clark is this big of an underdog against Morikawa the way these two are playing. After a remarkably consistent run from April through July, Morikawa doesn't look like the same player of late. The American lost strokes on approach at the FedEx St. Jude Championship for the first time in four months, and he finished T28 out of 50 players at the BMW Championship with a 73-74 weekend. Morikawa needs to be elite with his iron play this week due to his lack of distance, but his approach game hasn't been good in the playoffs.
Clark, on the other hand, is surging heading into the season finale. The 30-year-old finished T7 and T13 in the first two playoff events, giving him five top-15 finishes in his last six starts. His putter has been on fire in that span, and he'll need it to stay hot if he wants to make up the six-shot deficit. Most importantly, Clark is going to have a huge advantage with his driving distance, and he's been better than the field average with his accuracy in three straight starts.
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