Boston College vs. Florida State: How to bet Monday's college football showdown  

With more than a week of rest and a loss on the schedule, Florida State is expected to give a better effort in front of its home crowd in Week 1.

On the other side, Boston College will enter the season with a new head coach. Former NFL head coach and Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien takes over for the Eagles after most recently serving as the New England Patriots' offensive coordinator.

The program was without a coach when Jeff Hafley elected to leave Boston College for a position with the Green Bay Packers. Hafley cited NIL and various changes to college football as the root cause of the move.

Boston College will look to fall into a trend that favors Week 1 teams that did not play in Week 0. Since 2016, teams that play in Week 0 are at a disadvantage, with fresh teams in Week covering at a 56% clip.

Boston College vs. Florida State Odds

• Point Spread: Boston College +16.5 (-110) · Florida State -16.5 (-110)
• Total: Over/Under 49.5
• Moneyline: Boston College +550 · Florida State -820

Monday, Sept. 2

7:30 p.m. ET

ESPN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Boston College vs. Florida State Pick

• Boston College vs. Florida State Pick: Florida State -17 or Better

My Boston College-Georgia Tech bet is on the Seminoles to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

College Football Week 1 Prediction: Boston College-Florida State

Boston College Football

Boston College is expected to move to a pro-style system with 12 personnel under O'Brien.

Quarterback Thomas Castellanos returns under center after throwing for 2,249 yards a season ago with a high 5.6% turnover-worthy play rate a season ago. Oddly enough, the junior's numbers are stable in pressured dropbacks, as he holds a 3.4% turnover-worthy play rate in a crowded pocket.

The trench will serve as the anchor for the offense, returning more 77% of snaps and over 100 starts.

Running back Treshaun Ward transfers in for a season from Kansas State after playing four seasons at Florida State. The running back lost elusiveness in Manhattan a season ago, falling to 2.9 yards after contact.

The Eagles are a bit of a mystery on the defensive side of the ball, as coordinator Tim Lewis has not coached in the college game since 1994.

Based on Lewis' most recent tenure in the NFL, Boston College will likely field a heavy tackle box with a more aggressive blitz package.

Defensive tackle Cam Horsley put up numbers across the board in 2023, including four quarterback hits and three pass breakups.

Florida State Football

Florida State head coach Mike Norvell has one focus in the week of practice leading up to the game against Boston College: fundamentals. Not only did the Seminoles tackle poorly, but the defense failed to record a pass breakup or sack.

Slot cornerback Shyheim Brown had the most productive day on the defense, recording 10 tackles and three stops against the Yellow Jackets.

However, pass coverage was a massive issue for the Seminoles, as inside linebacker DJ Lundy allowed catches on all four targets, which led to 53 yards after the catch.

The offense failed to show any explosiveness on the ground, as Roydell Williams averaged 2.4 yards after contact.

While quarterback DJ Uiagalelei wasn't productive in zone-read rush attempts, the sixth-year senior did find success through the air. The former Oregon State and Clemson quarterback completed 18-of-26 passes with an average depth of target of 8.2 yards.

Florida State was excellent at moving the chains. Four of its seven drives contained at least two first downs.

Despite that success, the Seminoles failed to produce a receiving touchdown even with Ja'Khi Douglas and Malik Benson receiving six targets apiece.

How to Bet Boston College-Florida State Picks

Florida State has become re-energized since returning from Dublin, using practice opportunities to focus on fundamentals and correct mistakes from an opening loss.

The Seminoles were stuffed on 33% of their rushing attempts against Georgia Tech, racking up just one run over 12 yards.

However, Boston College's defensive front is expected to take a step back in stopping the run this season, giving Florida State a chance to stay in standard downs.

More importantly, Castellanos and Ward won't be able to produce the same number of explosives as Georgia Tech. The Eagles' passing attack fell outside the top 100 in Success Rate a season ago, as Castellanos ranked 94th nationally in on-target passing.

Florida State led the nation in on-target passes allowed, so expect improvement in the secondary.

Look for Boston College's new 12 personnel to struggle out of the gate against a Florida State team that has had extra rest after an embarrassing loss on national television.

The Seminoles are expected to play a clean game from a fundamentals perspective. Still, the market has bottomed out from the negativity surrounding Norvell's squad.

With an Action Network projection of Florida State -17.5, look to back the home team to buck the Week 0-to-Week 1 covering trend.

Pick: Florida State -17 or Better

How to Watch Boston College vs. Florida State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

Boston College vs. Florida State Betting Trends

• Boston College has received 55% of the bets but has taken only 51% of the money.
• The under has landed 84% of the tickets and generated 86% of the cash.

About the Author

Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.