Projecting the best (and worst) regular-season records for every AFC team

The NFL regular season kicks off with Thursday night's Baltimore Ravens-Kansas City Chiefs game, followed by Friday night's Green Bay Packers-Philadelphia Eagles game in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

On Sunday, 13 more games are scheduled, followed by the New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers on "Monday Night Football."

Optimism abounds (mostly) for fan bases of all 32 teams. 

On the cusp of the season, we asked Yardbarker NFL writers to project the 2024 floor and ceiling for every team in the AFC.

AFC East

BUFFALO BILLS | Ceiling: 12-5/Floor: 9-8 | The Bills enter the 2024 season with arguably the most uncertainty among AFC East teams after cutting ties with impactful contributors earlier this offseason due to salary-cap constraints. Although Buffalo lost WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the offense could still be dominant if it performs similarly to last season, when Joe Brady took over as interim OC and the Bills finished 6-1 down the stretch. Nonetheless, if QB Josh Allen and his new-look receiving corps don't click or the revamped defense underperforms, Buffalo could struggle against the sixth-most difficult schedule in the NFL.

MIAMI DOLPHINS | Ceiling: 11-6/Floor: 8-9 | The Dolphins return most of their talent from last season's team, which finished 11-6 in the regular season and ranked second in points per game (29.2). However, the offseason departures of DT Christian Wilkins, RG Robert Hunt and center Connor Williams, coupled with the early season absence of edge-rusher Bradley Chubb (recovering from torn right ACL), may cause the the team to take a step backward. A repeat of how it played against playoff teams last season (1-6 record) could doom Miami.

NEW YORK JETS | Ceiling: 12-5/ Floor: 9-8 | Despite having arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL, New York posted 7-10 records the past two seasons. The upgrade at quarterback from the dismal trio of Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian to four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers should be significant enough to improve on last season's record by at least two wins. The Jets have the best roster in the division on paper and, if that talent translates to on-field performance, they have the potential to be one of the AFC's top teams.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | Ceiling: 5-12/ Floor: 2-15 | With the lowest projected win total in the NFL (4.5 games), New England very well could finish with the league's worst record. Such a scenario unfolding wouldn't be particularly shocking because the Patriots are entering a rebuilding season under first-year HC Jerod Mayo, who replaced Bill Belichick. Still, if rookie Drake Maye takes over as New England's starting quarterback sooner than later and lives up to expectations, the team could string together a few wins in the second half. — Colum Dell

AFC West

DENVER BRONCOS | Ceiling: 8-9/Floor: 5-12 | Could rookie quarterback Bo Nix help the Broncos exceed expectations this season? The 12th overall pick flashed promise in the preseason, completing 23 of 30 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns in two games. However, ESPN’s Mike Clay rates Denver’s roster as the fourth worst in the NFL, so it wouldn’t be surprising if it logs an eighth consecutive losing season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | Ceiling: 13-4/Floor: 10-7 | The Chiefs are coming off their third Super Bowl win in five years and should keep rolling. This offseason, K.C. re-signed defensive tackle Chris Jones (five years, $158.75M) and gave tight end Travis Kelce (two years, $34.25M) a new contract. Per Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs ranked 31st in the league in average target depth (6.2 yards) last season, but rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy (pick No. 28) could help them rekindle their passing attack.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS | Ceiling: 8-9/Floor: 5-12 | The defense should flourish in its first full season under new head coach Antonio Pierce. Per the team website, the unit allowed a league-low 16 points per game in nine games last season under Pierce after he replaced the underwhelming Josh McDaniels. Quarterback play may hold Vegas back, though, as starter Gardner Minshew II has a 15-22 regular-season record in five seasons.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | Ceiling: 10-7/Floor: 8-9 | New head coach Jim Harbaugh should maximize quarterback Justin Herbert’s skills. Still, it’s unclear if the Bolts have a viable replacement for six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen, whom they dealt to the Bears this offseason. Plus, questions about the defense linger after it finished 24th in the league in points allowed (23.4) last season. — Clark Dalton

AFC North

BALTIMORE RAVENS | Ceiling: 14-3/Floor: 10-7 | The Ravens, who had the NFL’s best regular-season record last season (13-4), could match that again because they retained most of their key free agents and added RB Derrick Henry, a two-time NFL rushing yards and touchdowns leader. Baltimore’s 2024 success will largely depend on the health of two-time NFL MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, but the last year he missed time in 2022, the team still finished with a winning record (10-7).

CINCINNATI BENGALS | Ceiling: 13-4/Floor: 10-7 | The Bengals seem primed to return to their Super Bowl-contender status with a healthy QB Joe Burrow. When Burrow was healthy from 2021-22, he led Cincinnati to back-to-back AFC title games and a Super Bowl appearance. That should be the case once again, although things could start off a little rocky as three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase continues his hold-in while he waits for a much-deserved contract extension.

CLEVELAND BROWNS | Ceiling: 12-5/Floor: 7-10 | The Browns, the biggest wild card in the AFC North. return with the best defense in the league in total yards allowed but also have inconsistent QB Deshaun Watson, who has played in just 12 games since joining the team in 2022 because of a suspension and injuries. If Watson returns to his 2020 form (NFL-high 4,823 yards passing with Houston), Cleveland can be a contender, but if he disappoints and/or can’t stay healthy, the team could be in store for its third losing season in the past four years.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS | Ceiling: 12-5/Floor: 9-8 | On paper, the Steelers have upgraded or remained the same at every position except wide receiver, and that could still change even with the Brandon Aiyuk saga finally over. Pittsburgh’s 2024 success will be dependent on the play of 35-year-old quarterback Russell Wilson and maybe 25-year-old QB Justin Fields, but HC Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his 17 years as head coach, and that’s not about to change. — Aaron Becker

AFC South

HOUSTON TEXANS | Ceiling: 12-5/Floor: 10-7 | The Texans enter 2024 as the favorite to repeat as division champion and perhaps do even more if quarterback C.J. Stroud can take another step forward. The budding superstar led the NFL in yards passing per game (273.9) and threw for 23 TDs en route to Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2023. That seems like a good bet, considering Houston's offense, which ranked 12th in the NFL last season, added Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to a unit that already includes receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who combined for 1,936 yards, 127 receptions and 15 touchdowns in 2023.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | Ceiling: 10-7/Floor: 8-9 | The Colts surpassed expectations in head coach Shane Steichen's first year, finishing 9-8 despite being without several key players for significant chunks of 2023, including rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson (13 games) and running back Jonathan Taylor (seven). The potential to improve at full strength makes Indianapolis one of the more intriguing teams in the AFC South. But things could take a downward turn again if Richardson gets hurt and misses time. 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | Ceiling: 10-7/Floor: 8-9 | The Jaguars fell short of expectations in 2023, collapsing after an 8-3 start to finish 9-8 behind a banged-up quarterback and a leaky defense, which finished 22nd in the NFL. There is optimism for a bounce-back year as Trevor Lawrence is now healthy and paid after receiving a five-year, $275 million contract extension. Plus, new coordinator Ryan Nielsen should give the defense a fresh look.

TENNESSEE TITANS | Ceiling: 8-9/Floor: 5-12 | In the first year of a post-Mike Vrabel era, the Titans have reasons to be hopeful after adding wideout Calvin Ridley and running back Tony Pollard to an offense led by second-year quarterback Will Levis. Meanwhile, the defense added exciting, young cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, a former Chiefs star, and selected defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat in the second round. However, expect growing pains with the new pieces and a first-year head coach Brian Callahan. — Mike Santa Barbara