NFL futures: Can these Coach of the Year favorites meet very high expectations?

Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons (+1300)

A coaching change is just what the Falcons need after questionable decisions led to a very underwhelming 2023 campaign. And it's easy to see why oddsmakers are high on Morris, given the talented young offense he gets to work with and the Falcons having what is considered to be the easiest schedule this season.

However, Atlanta follows up a Week 1 battle against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, and then a division matchup against the New Orleans Saints. How Morris can steer his team through the first four weeks of the season will say a lot about whether those 13-1 odds get shorter or lengthen.

"It’s realistic to think the Falcons could start the season 0-3, and honestly, it’s not the end of the world if they do because they have two winnable division games in Weeks 4 and 5 against New Orleans and Tampa Bay," The Athletic speculates. "However, if the Saints win in Atlanta to drop the Falcons to 0-4, the bloom will be completely off the rose."

Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks (+1000)

The Seahawks' post-Pete Carroll hire looks great on paper, and he is inheriting a well-rounded and experienced team that narrowly missed the playoffs after going 9-8 last year. Macdonald is a defensive-minded coach who has University of Washington's Ryan Grubb as his new OC, so expectations are high for Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and he whole gang.

Are the expectations too high here? The Action Network doesn't think so.

"Voters would love a first-year candidate, especially one taking over for a legend like Pete Carroll and not stepping back but injecting the team with new life and pushing them to even greater heights," TAN said, adding that "if they have a great season as expected, this coaching staff should be in the mix for Coach of the Year all the way."

Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers (+850)

Remember, Harbaugh won Coach of the Year after turning the 49ers around in 2011. Heck, he even got the Niners to the Super Bowl the next season. (Which he lost to big brother John's Baltimore Ravens, but that's another story.) So if any new head coach is going to get a ton of hype and be favored by oddsmakers to win COY in 2024, it's this guy.

So what does that mean about those 17-2 odds of winning Coach of the Year with a team that went 5-12 last season?

"For Harbaugh to win the award, he'll most likely need to lead his team to the playoffs next season, which is practically a requirement to become considered for the award," Sports Illustrated said. "Winning the division would help the Chargers' case even more, but that won't be easy in the AFC West where the Kansas City Chiefs have won the division in eight straight years."

The Action Network agrees with this summation, liking Harbaugh's chances of winning the award but cautioning against wagering at such short odds.

"We're probably looking for 11 wins and a playoff berth, including at least one win against the Chiefs," they said. "That's doable but tough in the loaded AFC, and it's just not bettable at such a short number."