Why Connor Bedard's sophomore ceiling is much higher than you think

Incredibly, of the seven generational forwards before Bedard, the average result was a scoring title by their third NHL season at an average age of 21.

Now, there are some distinctions. Gretzky played in the WHA, a legitimate professional league, before the NHL. Lemieux, Lindros, and McDavid turned 19 during their rookie seasons. Jagr was new to North America. Ovechkin was already 20 when he debuted. But the takeaway is clear… players of this echelon become the best in world almost immediately and without interruption. It doesn’t take five or six years and organizational patience.

Counter Arguments

OK, pump the brakes.

We’re talking about an undersized forward that scored four power play goals last year on a team still projected to finish in the NHL’s bottom five by the betting market. But here’s why common concerns don’t hold weight when it comes to Bedard:

• But he was only on pace for 74 points last year… As much as Bedard was worth the price of admission, he was 58th in NHL points-per-game. If we exclude the 20-year-old rookie Ovechkin from the generational talent sample, however, the average rise in adjusted production is 25% in Year Two. In Bedard’s case, that’s a 92-point pace in 2024-25. As the second-youngest in the sample after a season interrupted by injury, there’s reason to believe Bedard outperforms the average increase.
• But he’s not playing with other elite players… This argument works in Bedard’s favor. He managed to perform at a high level with Philipp Kurashev, Nick Foligno, Ryan Donato, Lukas Reichel, and Anthony Beauvillier as his most common linemates last season. While reinforcements Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuro Teravainen, and a healthy Hall won’t keeping opposing coaches up at night, the inflow of talent can only help Bedard. It also presents a deeper power play than the one that scored just 39 goals last year.
• But what about cautionary cases like Alexis Lafrenière… It’s simple to paint all top prospects with the same brush. Bedard is not Lafrenière. Bedard broke the Canadian World Junior scoring record with 23 points in seven games. At age 17. In a 19-year-old tournament. Lafrenière, by comparison, had one point in five games at the same age. By entering a scorched-earth rebuild, Chicago has offered Bedard maximum opportunity and room for error, deftly handling his development on and off the ice. Lafrenière entered the NHL a full year older on an impatient Rangers’ team in win-now mode.
• But he’s too small to dominate that quickly… Crosby crushed this narrative two decades ago. While Bedard may not have debuted with Crosby’s engine, he’s similarly below average height, bottom-heavy, and dominates in tight quarters. Size is simply not a prerequisite in an open, skilled NHL that has seen offensive levels not approached in three decades. Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov have offered templates in all-world brilliance without long reaches or brute strength.

Sophomore ceiling

By looking around the league, the expectations for Bedard’s output in 2024-25 arrive at a general consensus. The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn’s dynamic Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet projects Bedard for 31/52/83 in 78 games — a top-25 finish in the NHL points race. The Hockey News annual fantasy preview has Bedard’s line at 35/45/80 in 80 games.

NHL.com says 85 points. ESPN says 76 points. Our own fantasy guru, Matt Larkin, doesn’t offer a hard number but “can confidently predict this is the final time [Bedard will] be available outside the first round in redraft leagues for the next 15 years.”

My sophomore prediction for Bedard leans into the potential of a true generational talent.

I think we’re going to blink and see him ascend near the top of the league by April. Assuming full health, Bedard will hit 40 goals and 100 points. His breakout will be heavily fueled by becoming a legitimate power player weapon. He’ll progress so quickly that he’ll be an easy choice as a top-six forward that leaves a mark on Team Canada in the 4 Nations Faceoff. Visually, Bedard will routinely make highlight reel plays that few others consider — both as an elite sniper and playmaker.

By his third season at age 20, he’ll be a 50-goal threat, among a handful of the world’s best players, and a focal point of Team Canada’s 2026 Olympic program. As McDavid, Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon creep into the back half of their careers, Bedard’s silky mitts will accept the torch.

Optimistic? Maybe. But with McDavid and Crosby, the seismic step forward was fast. Faster than you remember. Their ability and drive blew away the most rose-colored development plans. Freight-train talents who come along every 10 years don’t stop and wait for you to adjust. They quickly set the standard and the rest of the league tries to keep up.

So, grab some Chicago Mix and enjoy the show.

Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.com and EliteProspects.com