Oregon head coach Dan Lanning. Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Why Oregon is on upset alert in Week 3

By Eric Smithling | Last updated Sep 11, 2024 9:22 AM ET

Following two unconvincing wins to start the 2024 season, things won't get any easier for Dan Lanning's Oregon squad in Week 3.

The Ducks will have their hands full in what should be a fiery game against in-state rival Oregon State.

Left behind in the conference realignment shuffle, Oregon State (2-0) will likely be motivated to prove it won't be ignored.

The teams agreed to continue their annual rivalry game despite Oregon spurning Oregon State for the Big Ten and leaving the Beavers in the rubble of the dismantled Pac-12.

Oregon State beat San Diego State, 21-0, last Saturday after a 38-15 Week 1 win over FCS Idaho State.

Meanwhile, Oregon survived Boise State's upset bid in Week 2 with a 37-34 win a week after an unimpressive 24-14 win over FCS Idaho.

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty gashed the Ducks defense. To be fair, Jeanty, arguably college football's best running back, could make any defense look foolish.

But Oregon's defense gave him massive holes to run through, including this 70-yard touchdown that tied the game at 27 in the fourth quarter.

Ashton Jeanty now up to 166 rushing yards on 19 carries with 2 TDs vs. Oregon. #RB1 pic.twitter.com/zAQoITYqRQ
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) September 8, 2024

In Week 1, Idaho backs Elisha Cummings and Nate Thomas gained 53 yards on 10 carries.

Oregon State has averaged 299.5 yards per game on the ground so far this season, with running backs Anthony Hankerson and Jamious Griffin leading the way.

Griffin leads the team with 249 rushing yards and has added three touchdowns on his 38 carries (6.6 yards per attempt). Hankerson has 40 rush attempts, 226 yards (5.7 yards per carry) and three touchdowns.

Both backs could give Oregon's defensive front fits.

Per Game On Paper, Oregon's defense ranks 127th out of 134 FBS programs in defensive rush expected points added (EPA), while Oregon State's ranks 30th in offensive rush EPA.

Against Idaho State, Griffin scored two touchdowns and proved it takes more than an arm tackle to bring him to the turf.

2️⃣ for Hankerson & 2️⃣ for @J_Griffin_6

@BeaverFootball
@TheCW x @TheCW_Sports pic.twitter.com/70ufpx3ltw
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) September 1, 2024

Hankerson showed nice vision on an 16-yard touchdown last Saturday, bouncing the run to the outside and getting to the edge to give the Beavers a 14-0 advantage.

4TH DOWN TO THE END ZONE, ANTHONY HANKERSON!

CBS Sports#GoBeavs x @BeaverFootball pic.twitter.com/QDs1Shw7Ji
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) September 8, 2024

Game On Paper data shows Oregon State's average third-down distance (4.66 yards) on offense ranks third in the country, and the Beavers will find themselves in advantageous situations if the Ducks' rush defense doesn't improve.

Per ESPN Bet, Associated Press No. 9 Oregon (2-0) is a significant 16-point road favorite for Saturday's game.

Will the Ducks who entered the season ranked third in the country finally show up? Not if the Beavers have anything to say about it.

Eric Smithling

Eric Smithling is a writer based in New Orleans, LA, whose byline also appears on Athlon Sports. He has been with Yardbarker since September 2022, primarily covering the NFL and college football, but also the NBA, WNBA, men’s and women’s college basketball, NHL, tennis and golf. He holds a film studies degree from the University of New Orleans

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