NFL player props Week 2: Isaiah Likely, Malik Willis, more

Raiders vs. Ravens Player Props: Don't Expect an Encore from Isaiah Likely

Sunday, Sept. 15

1 p.m. ET

CBS

TE Isaiah Likely Under 3.5 Receptions (-114, FanDuel)

Likely erupted for a 9/111/1 receiving line on opening night against the Chiefs. The most impressive part was the fact he did it despite fellow TE Mark Andrews playing the entire game.

I’ve said for the past couple of years that Likely is the best “backup” TE in the league, so I wasn’t too surprised to see him go off in Week 1 considering the Ravens were planning on using more 2TE sets with him this year.

However, I think there’s a decent chance he comes back down to Earth a bit this week.

The Ravens were in a pass-heavy (trailing) game script last week. They are much more likely to play with the lead against the Raiders and lean on Derrick Henry.

The Chiefs were double teaming Andrews for most of the game, which was leaving Likely wide open at times. Andrews should draw more targets against Las Vegas at the expense of Likely; Zay Flowers will also command a high target share and I also expect Rashod Bateman to see more targets going forward.

I don’t really want to fade Likely’s yardage prop because he can easily clear it with a few catches. I’m projecting him closer to 3.2 receptions and a 60% chance to stay under 3.5.

Colts vs. Packers Player Props: Malik Willis Enters the Fire

Sunday, Sept. 15

1 p.m. ET

FOX

QB Malik Willis Under 169.5 Passing Yards (-113, FanDuel)

The Packers will likely be without Jordan Love (questionable) this week due to an MCL sprain. Backup Malik Willis is expected to draw the start despite only joining the Packers a couple of weeks ago.

Willis likely doesn’t have a good handle on the Packers’ scheme/playbook quite yet – as a result, they will have to significantly alter their gameplan.

The former Titan failed to clear 100 passing yards in each of his three starts in his rookie season back in 2022. I’m expecting the Packers to have a run-heavy game plan with Willis under center, leaning on Josh Jacobs as much as possible here and designed run plays with Willis. Even when Willis drops back to pass, he’s going to be a threat to pull the ball down and use his legs.

There are two potential game scripts he will face this week and I think both only help his under:

1. The first is the ideal one for the Packers: They play a close game, or even play with the lead, and lean on the run game, which limits how much Willis drops back to pass.
2. The second is a trailing game script where Green Bay has to drop back to pass more. I think in this scenario we could see the Packers consider turning to QB Sean Clifford, who has been splitting first-team reps with Willis this week. Because of this, Willis has a very low floor.

Jayden Reed is the Packers’ most dangerous runner after the catch and he’s questionable with calf/shin injury

The Colts will likely have a pretty conservative (run-heavy) game plan that could limit the overall play volume for Green Bay.

This is a tricky prop to project, but I think this prop should be closer to 150 passing yards due to Willis’ low floor. This has around a 60% chance to stay under the projected 169.5 passing yards.

Browns vs. Jaguars Player Props: Buy Low on Elijah Moore

Sunday, Sept. 15

1 p.m. ET

BSSE

WR Elijah Moore Over 2.5 Receptions (-105, DraftKings)

In Week 1, Moore ran a route on 93% of Deshaun Watson’s dropbacks and was the team’s main slot WR (not Jerry Jeudy), registering 64% of his routes from the slot. The end result was three receptions on six targets for nine yards.

Moore was unlucky to only catch half of his targets considering his average depth of target (aDOT) was 3.8 yards downfield. I expect him to catch around 70-75% of his targets at that depth, even from a washed QB like Watson.

With David Njoku (ankle) sidelined for Week 2, I could see Moore getting more targets – the Browns will probably be forced to run a ton of 11 personnel as well.

Moore has been one of Watson’s favorite targets since he joined the team last year. He has seen 6+ targets from Watson in five of the six games they’ve played together. I’m projecting Moore closer to 3.2 receptions with around a 62% chance he clears 2.5.

About the Author

Sean Koerner leads predictive analytics at Action Network, specializing in sports projections and fantasy rankings. With over 20 years of experience, he's a top expert in the field, consistently ranking first in the FantasyPros Accuracy standings multiple times. Known for his in-depth content on NFL betting and fantasy football, Sean also co-hosts popular podcasts and can do projections for all sports, making him a go-to source for accurate sports predictions.

Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.