Falcons vs. Eagles prediction, pick, odds, how to watch 'Monday Night Football'

NFL 'Monday Night Football' Picks

There are definite questions surrounding the health of Kirk Cousins. He didn't look right in his Falcons debut, but it also probably didn't help that he faced T.J. Watt, who wreaked havoc throughout that contest. Fortunately, the Eagles don't have a player like Watt (most teams don't), and the Falcons offensive line is still an above-average unit. Plus, history says you can expect Cousins to play better in Week 2 after not having played at all in the preseason, which usually leads to a dip in production in season openers.

The play-calling for Atlanta has to be better under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who didn't have a sparkling game from a play-calling perspective. The Falcons had some down-to-down success but almost exclusively ran out of the pistol and threw out of the shotgun. That level of predictability won't cut it against any defense, especially one with a ferocious front. Atlanta didn't help itself with a minus-3 turnover margin, but part of that can be attributed to the lack of play-calling creativity, which directly led to giveaways.

I'd expect a very different approach from the Falcons offense on Monday night.

I thought the Falcons defense showed pretty well albeit against a limited Steelers offense. They only allowed the following six field-goal drives:

• 10 plays, 31 yards
• 10 plays, 18 yards
• 4 plays, 45 yards
• 9 plays, 24 yards
• 5 plays, 46 yards
• 7 plays, 11 yards

Atlanta's offense did it no favors in terms of field position. The Falcons defense isn't the most talented in the league, but the late additions of Justin Simmons and Matthew Judon really raised the overall floor of this unit at positions of need. Plus, Raheem Morris is usually pretty solid when it comes to crafting opponent-specific game plans on a weekly basis.

It won't be an easy task this week against an Eagles offense that looked excellent in Week 1 — despite a few questionable throws from Jalen Hurts. I really liked the hire of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who will bring more modernity to the Philly offense, starting simply with a significantly higher frequency of pre-snap motion.

However, A.J. Brown will miss Philly's home opener with a hamstring injury. That obviously leaves a pretty big hole on the outside, especially since the Eagles don't have superb depth at the position. It also helps out an Atlanta secondary that is very top heavy at cornerback with A.J. Terrell.

On the other side of the ball, Philly brought in well-respected defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to fix the myriad of defensive issues Philly experienced during the 2023 season. Fangio is a significant upgrade, but he does run a pretty complex defense. As a result, it usually takes some time for players to adjust to his scheme.

We saw some coverage busts and miscommunication in Week 1 against the Packers. While Green Bay does have one of the better offenses in the league and the field conditions weren't ideal for defenders, those issues could persist for a bit before everyone (especially a back end with a number of new faces) all get on the same page.

Best Bet for Falcons vs. Eagles

For me, Week 2 is all about fading the over-reactions of Week 1. And this game is no different, as I think the market over-corrected a bit too much after Atlanta's loss (and Philly's win to some extent). Here are some trends that back that up:

• Underdogs that failed to cover by seven or more points in Week 1 have gone 58-40 (59%) over the past 20 years.
• Week 2 Underdogs of less than a touchdown have cashed at a 57% clip since 2003. After a loss, they have fared even better at 80-50-4 (61.5%). And when those teams lose in Week 1 as favorites, that clip improves even more to 65.9% (27-14-3 ATS).

I expect Cousins to improve with a game under his belt after returning from injury and Atlanta's play-calling to be significantly less predictable. It won't hurt that the offensive line should have an easier time with Philly than it did against Watt and company. I also think the loss of Brown is a touch more significant in this particular matchup.

Give me Atlanta to bounce back and at least keep this one close.

Pick: Falcons +6

Betting Trends

• 47% of bets and 83% of the money are on the Eagles to cover the spread.
• 48% of bets and 57% of the money are on the under.
• 95% of bets and 94% of the money on the moneyline are on the Eagles.

How to Watch Falcons vs. Eagles

Atlanta vs. Philadelphia is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET live from Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night. The game will be live on ESPN and ABC, and it can be streamed on YouTube TV.

About the Author

Stuckey is a senior betting analyst at Action Network, focusing on college football, college basketball, and the NFL. He hosts The Action Network Podcast and co-hosts the Big Bets on Campus podcast with Collin Wilson and Brett McMurphy. Stuckey was Action Network’s first content hire in 2017, helping launch their award-winning app, and continues to work closely with their development team. A CFA Charterholder, Stuckey has been betting since 2003 and has a background as a derivatives analyst in the financial industry. He holds an MBA from George Washington University.

Follow Stuckey @Stuckey2 on Twitter/X.