Patriots vs. Jets prediction, pick, odds, how to watch 'Thursday Night Football'

Patriots vs. Jets Picks

SPREAD

I'm in line with the spread for this game and have no pick.

MONEYLINE

I'm also not betting either moneyline.

TOTAL

Both teams are likely to lean on their run game, but injuries on the Patriots offensive line and key players on the Jets defense make it unclear how effective the New England run game will be. This will be crucial to keeping the game close and avoiding a pass-heavy game script. If the Patriots can manage this, it should help keep the game under 38.5 points.

This is not an official bet, but I would lean toward the under more than any other play on the spread or total in this game.

Patriots vs. Jets Pick: Under 38.5

Patriots vs. Jets Odds

Thursday, Sept. 19

8:15 p.m. ET

Peacock

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Patriots-Jets Point Spread: Patriots +6.5 | Jets -6.5
• Patriots-Jets Total: Over/Under 38.5
• Patriots-Jets Moneyline: Patriots +225 | Jets -275

Patriots vs. Jets: 'Thursday Night Football' Picks

When the Patriots Have the Ball

Under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, the Patriots offense has been extremely run-heavy with a -9.1% PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected) that ranks 25th in the league. New England isn't hiding its inclination to run either, using six or more offensive linemen on an NFL-high 26 plays this season and running the ball on 25 of those snaps. It makes sense for the Patriots to continue leaning on the run as they face the Jets, who boast one of the best secondaries in the league.

Jacoby Brissett has been under pressure on 44% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league, while the Jets have generated the highest pressure rate (44%). To complicate things, Patriots left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow have been ruled out. While rookies Caeden Wallace and Michael Jordan will step in, I don’t expect a significant dropoff. It’s still not ideal for a team that frequently utilizes formations with six or more linemen, especially given its thin depth on a short week.

The Jets have also taken some hits. Edge rusher Jermaine Johnson (Achilles) is out for the season, Haason Reddick remains in a holdout and Leki Fotu is still on injured reserve. To add to their woes, LB C.J. Mosley (toe) hasn’t practiced this week and will be a game-time decision.

Expect the Patriots to rely heavily on the run game with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson to limit Brissett’s dropbacks against this formidable Jets pass rush and avoid challenging their stingy secondary.

When the Jets Have the Ball

Unlike Brissett, Aaron Rodgers should have a fairly clean pocket on Thursday Night Football. The Jets offensive line has been performing well, with Rodgers facing pressure on only 25% of his dropbacks, which is the fifth-lowest rate in the league. On the other hand, the Patriots have struggled to generate pressure, with a 24% pressure rate, which is third lowest in the league.

That said, Rodgers has shown some rust after missing nearly all of 2023 due to an Achilles tear and entering his age-41 season. His completion percentage is 9% lower than expected, and his average intended air yards is just 5.4 yards downfield, the third-lowest rate among qualified QBs. This indicates that the Jets may continue to rely on a more conservative approach, favoring quick, short passes to complement their run game.

Expect the Jets to lean heavily on the ground attack, utilizing Breece Hall and impressive rookie Braelon Allen, while also incorporating short, efficient passes from Rodgers to move the chains.

Best Bet for Patriots vs. Jets

Both offenses rank in the top 10 in punt rate per drive — New England is third and New York is seventh — which suggests we could be in for a Thursday night defensive struggle with few points on the board.

Patriots punter Bryce Baringer has been outstanding this season, averaging 53.8 yards per punt and pinning teams inside their own 20-yard line on 64% of his punts. He has the second-longest punt of the season (67 yards) and had the third-longest punt (79 yards) last season. When you're betting on an under, having strong punters like Baringer and Jets veteran Thomas Morstead is key.

Primetime unders have been a profitable trend over the past few seasons, and this matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring affair.

My projection is 37.5. I wish we had a bit more value here, though, so under 38.5 is just a lean for me.

Pick: Under 38.5

Betting Trends

• 54% of bets and 58% of the money are on the Jets to cover the spread.
• 74% of bets and 50% of the money are on the over.
• 79% of bets and 46% of the money on the moneyline are on the Jets.

How to Watch Patriots vs. Jets

Patriots vs. Jets is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will be broadcast and streamed live on Prime Video.

About the Author

Sean Koerner leads predictive analytics at Action Network, specializing in sports projections and fantasy rankings. With over 20 years of experience, he's a top expert in the field, consistently ranking first in the FantasyPros Accuracy standings multiple times. Known for his in-depth content on NFL betting and fantasy football, Sean also co-hosts popular podcasts and can do projections for all sports, making him a go-to source for accurate sports predictions.

Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.