NFL betting guide: Dougherty's Week 3 picks and predictions

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, Sept. 22, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Steelers -1.5
Total: 35.5

Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers are embracing a ground-and-pound approach. Los Angeles is running the ball on 59.7 percent of its offensive snaps, as the RB duo of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards has overshadowed Justin Herbert by design so far. 

The Steelers have been content riding their elite defense to a 2-0 start. Pittsburgh leads the league in turnover differential (+5), and Justin Fields has done just enough to win two games.
 
Mismatch to exploit: Justin Herbert vs. Justin Fields
It's hard to find a difference between these two defensive-minded teams, so you have to take the side with the much better quarterback getting points. 

Prediction: Chargers 19, Steelers 17

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, Sept. 22, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Buccaneers -6.5
Total: 40

Sean Payton's decision to draft Bo Nix in the first round isn't looking too hot. The rookie QB has already thrown four interceptions and is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt through two weeks. This could be a long season of maturing for Nix and the Broncos.

The Buccaneers might be for real after knocking off the Detroit Lions on the road last week. Baker Mayfield has been brilliant so far with 474 yards on 73.5 percent passing, and the defense held Detroit to only one touchdown in seven red zone trips.
 
Mismatch to exploit: Buccaneers linebackers vs. Javonte Williams
The Buccaneers' pressure-focused defense allowed Jared Goff to dump it off to Jahmyr Gibbs seven times in Week 2. Nix loves checking it down to his running backs while under pressure, so check out Williams to go over his receiving props.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Broncos 17

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, Sept. 22, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Texans -2
Total: 46

The Texans left some points on the board against the Bears, but this offense is loaded with talent behind C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Joe Mixon is questionable for this game due to an ankle injury, so it could be a busy day for Stroud and the passing offense. 

The Vikings are one of the surprise 2-0 teams early in the season. Sam Darnold has looked fantastic, and Brian Flores' blitz-heavy defense ranks second in the NFL in sack percentage (12.4 percent). That's a dangerous game to play against Stroud, though.  

Mismatch to exploit: C.J. Stroud vs. the blitz
Flores is going to bring the heat, but Stroud is one of the best quarterbacks in the league against the blitz. Look for his short-yardage target, Diggs, to go over his receptions prop against this defense. 

Prediction: Texans 23, Vikings 21

Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans

Sunday, Sept. 22, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Titans -2.5
Total: 38

Malik Willis returns to Tennessee for a matchup against the team that traded him away earlier this year. The former Titan was efficient last week thanks to a dominant running game opening up the passing game, but we'd be surprised if that lasts long.

The Titans are a few plays away from turning 0-2 into 2-0, but Will Levis cannot stop giving games away with his poor decision-making. If Levis can simply take care of the ball, the Titans can start to rack up wins behind their defense that's giving up the fewest yards per play (3.8) in the NFL.  

Mismatch to exploit: Malik Willis vs. Titans passing defense
Willis had the best game of his career last week and still finished with only 122 passing yards. Against a defense that ranks second in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt, check out Willis' passing yards under. 

Prediction: Titans 23, Packers 13

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, Sept. 22, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Saints -2.5
Total: 49.5

After an embarrassing collapse against the Atlanta Falcons, the Eagles head south to take on the Saints. A.J. Brown is expected to miss a second straight game, while the defense continues to struggle with generating pressure on the opposing quarterback.

Meanwhile, Derek Carr and the Saints have looked flawless through two weeks. This spread was Eagles -2.5 before Monday Night Football, and it flipped to Saints -2.5 after Philly lost to Atlanta and New Orleans throttled Dallas.  

Mismatch to exploit: Derek Carr vs. Eagles defensive line
Carr is a quarterback who struggles against pressure but can slice you up with a clean pocket. The Eagles have given Jordan Love and Kirk Cousins plenty of time to throw, so Carr should have another good game and exceed his passing props. 

Prediction: Saints 27, Eagles 24

Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Raiders -5.5
Total: 40

After a noncompetitive 0-2 start to the year, the Panthers decided to bench Bryce Young and replace him with Andy Dalton. To illustrate how bad Young really is, the spread dropped from Panthers +7 to Panthers +5.5 and the total went up from 38 to 40 after the news dropped. 

The Raiders are coming off an impressive upset victory against the Baltimore Ravens on the road. Gardner Minshew has played well, Brock Bowers is living up to the hype and the defensive line is causing chaos in the opposing backfield. This team might not be too shabby.
 
Mismatch to exploit: Zamir White vs. Panthers run defense
The Raiders want to be a run-first team, and they can be this week against a Panthers defense that allowed the Chargers to rush for 219 yards last week. White should get the rock a ton in this matchup and go over his rushing yards prop. 

Prediction: Raiders 21, Panthers 17

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks 

Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Seahawks -4.5
Total: 41.5

The Dolphins begin life without Tua Tagovailoa after the quarterback was placed on injured reserve with a concussion. Skylar Thompson will get the start under center for Miami, and he couldn't ask for a better situation with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane to ease him into the job.

The Seahawks have the least impressive 2-0 record in the NFL after beating the Broncos and Patriots to start the year. Seattle struggled to pull out the win in both games, so we're not convinced Mike Macdonald's squad is ready to step up in class even with a back QB slated to start. 

Mismatch to exploit: De'Von Achane vs. Seahawks linebackers
Achane caught all seven of his targets for 69 yards and a touchdown last week. Thompson will lean on shorter, safer throws to find a groove, so take a look at Achane's receiving prop overs.  

Prediction: Dolphins 26, Seahawks 23

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Lions -3
Total: 51.5

The Lions put up 463 yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play against the Buccaneers, but red zone issues kept them to just 16 points. Detroit should have an easier time finishing off those drives against a Cardinals defense that let the Bills do whatever they wanted in Week 1.  
Arizona dominated the banged-up Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, and Marvin Harrison Jr. broke out with four catches, 130 yards and two touchdowns. This is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the week for a good reason.  

Mismatch to exploit: Lions rush defense vs. James Conner
The Lions have limited opposing teams to just 3.3 yards per rush so far. Conner has looked good through two weeks, but this is a good spot to sell high and take his under rushing yards.
 
Prediction: Lions 33, Cardinals 24

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: 49ers -7
Total: 44.5

Speaking of the Rams, they're dealing with a ton of injuries on offense. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will be out for this game, and Los Angeles has four offensive linemen on injured reserve. They might not be able to keep up with the 49ers.
San Francisco will be missing Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel this week, but Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are much better weapons than anything the Rams have to offer behind their two star wideouts.  

Mismatch to exploit: Jauan Jennings vs. Rams secondary
Jennings will see a ton of work in this game with McCaffrey and Samuel out, and the Rams secondary just got shredded by the Cardinals. Take a look at his over receiving yards. 

Prediction: 49ers 26, Rams 17

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, Sept. 22, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Ravens -1
Total: 48.5

The Ravens are off to a surprising 0-2 start after a bad loss to the Raiders, and the biggest issue has been the passing defense. Baltimore ranks dead last in passing yards allowed per game and 30th in opponent completion percentage.

Now the Ravens have to face Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and the explosive Cowboys passing offense. They didn't look explosive in last week's blowout loss against the Saints, but this is a secondary they can throw on.
 
Mismatch to exploit: Ravens run defense vs. Cowboys run offense
The Cowboys split touches between Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, and neither has been very effective. The Ravens are giving up the fewest yards per rush in the NFL (2.9), so check out Dowdle's and Elliott's unders. 

Prediction: Ravens 30, Cowboys 28

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, Sept. 22, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
Total: 43.5

The Chiefs survived against the Bengals last week, but they lost Pacheco to a leg fracture. With a running back-by-committee approach on the horizon, it will be on Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy to pace the offense. No problems there.  
The Falcons made out with a miracle win against the Eagles to avoid an 0-2 start, but there are still issues on both sides of the ball. Kirk Cousins is having trouble escaping pressure coming off his Achilles injury, and the defense ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed per game.  

Mismatch to exploit: Chiefs running backs vs. the betting market
This isn't necessarily a mismatch, but no one knows what Kansas City's running back rotation is going to look like without Pacheco on the field. It might be worth it to sprinkle an anytime touchdown bet on the Chiefs RB with the longest odds. 

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Falcons 24

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills

Monday, Sept. 23, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Bills -5
Total: 45.5

The "Monday Night Football" doubleheader begins with an AFC battle between the Jaguars and Bills. Josh Allen is proving he doesn't need a star wide receiver to thrive in this offense (or any offense, for that matter). The defense, even without Matt Milano running the show, ranks sixth in the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.6). 

The Jaguars have played two winnable games, but Trevor Lawrence hasn't been good enough with his 51 percent completion rate and 82.3 passer rating. The former No. 1 overall pick is running out of time to live up to his draft slot.  

Mismatch to exploit: James Cook vs. Jaguars run defense
Cook had a monster game against the Dolphins, and the Bills are committing to the run to start the year, but the Jaguars are much worse against the pass than the run. Buffalo should have a more pass-heavy game plan ready for this one, so take a look at Cook's rushing prop unders.
 
Prediction: Jaguars 24, Bills 23

Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals

Monday, Sept. 23, 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC
Spread: Bengals -7.5
Total: 47

Jayden Daniels has looked like the best rookie quarterback through two weeks, completing 75.5 percent of his pass attempts and rushing for 132 yards with no turnovers. This offense has a ton of upside, but the secondary could be in for a long day against Joe Burrow and company.
 
The Bengals looked miles better against the Chiefs than they did against the Patriots, and this is a great matchup for them to get in an offensive groove.  

Mismatch to exploit: Ja'Marr Chase vs. Commanders secondary
Washington gave up 127 yards to Nabers last week and 140 combined yards to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 1. This defense can't contain talented wide receivers, so Chase should be able to hit his over and possibly cash an anytime touchdown.
 
Prediction: Bengals 28, Commanders 19