NCAAF best bets: Dougherty's college football Week 4 picks and preview

No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini @ No. 22 Nebraska Cornhuskers

Friday, Sept. 20, 8 p.m. ET, FOX

In a battle between undefeated Big Ten teams, this will mark the first ranked matchup in Memorial Stadium in over a decade. It might be a ranked matchup according to the AP Poll, but we're not convinced Illinois is one of the best 25 teams in the country. The Illini have knocked off Eastern Illinois, Kansas and Central Michigan, so the voters seem to be valuing a home win against an overrated Kansas team a bit too much. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has looked good this season with 647 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions, but we're sensing some regression against by far the best defense he's faced this year.

Speaking of that Nebraska defense, the Cornhuskers rank 12th in the country in yards per play allowed (3.9), and they had to go up against Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and Colorado. This team is more battle-tested and has a huge advantage at QB with Dylan Raiola.  

The bet to make: Nebraska -7.5 (-110 FanDuel)

No. 11 USC Trojans @ No. 18 Michigan Wolverines

Saturday, Sept. 21, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Lincoln Riley must own a tree in his backyard that sprouts quarterbacks on command, and Miller Moss is just the latest fruit to pop out of those magical leaves. Moss has thrown for 607 yards and two touchdowns while completing 72.7 percent of his passes through two starts, and he didn't even play the full game in a blowout win against Utah State. He can keep it rolling against a Michigan defense that let Quinn Ewers and Texas do whatever they wanted on that side of the ball. USC is also going to speed up the tempo and produce more possessions for both teams.  

The Wolverines are making a quarterback change from Davis Warren to Alex Orji, a tantalizing athlete who will bring an extra weapon to this already dangerous rushing attack. Orji's dual-threat ability might just unlock Michigan's offense.

The bet to make: Over 44 (-110 BetMGM)

No. 12 Utah Utes @ No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Saturday, Sept. 21, 4 p.m. ET, FOX

This spread has bounced around all week with the injury uncertainty surrounding Utah quarterback Cam Rising. Rising hurt his hand against Baylor in Week 2 and sat out last week's game against Utah State. We won't know about Rising's official status until closer to kickoff, so playing this spread is a dangerous game if we're just guessing his availability.  
What we do know, though, is Kyle Whittingham is a master at drawing up a defensive game plan to shut down what you do best on offense. For Oklahoma State, that's riding running back Ollie Gordon, but the preseason Heisman hopeful is running for just 3.5 yards per carry through three games. Gordon hasn't looked explosive this season, and Whittingham will make sure he doesn't beat the Utah defense on the ground.
 
The bet to make: Ollie Gordon under 80.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)

No. 8 Miami Hurricanes @ South Florida Bulls

Saturday, Sept. 21, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Don't let South Florida's 42-16 loss to Alabama fool you. The Bulls were within one point of the Crimson Tide in the fourth quarter on the road before the game snowballed out of control. This team has some serious talent, starting with dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, who ran all over Alabama's defense for 108 yards two weeks ago.  

Miami is loaded on both sides of the ball, but this is a great time to sell the hype after dominant wins against Florida, Florida A&M and Ball State. Cam Ward and the Hurricanes should be able to light up the scoreboard against this defense, but USF is more than comfortable playing in a shootout. The Bulls can stay inside this inflated number.
 
The bet to make: South Florida +17.5 (+112 DraftKings)

No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers @ No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners

Saturday, Sept. 21, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
 
Tennessee looks like a juggernaut so far, outscoring its opponents 191-13 through three games. The only issue is the Volunteers haven't played a defense with a pulse. Brent Venables and Oklahoma present a much tougher challenge, as the Sooners rank 12th in the country in yards per play allowed (3.9) and 19th in points per game allowed (11.3).

Oklahoma has struggled offensively behind quarterback Jackson Arnold, as it ranks 98th in the country in yards per play (4.6). That number would be even worse if not for a 51-point outlier against a terrible Temple defense. The Sooners know their only chance to hang in this game is to muck it up and keep the score low.  

The bet to make: Under 58 (-110 Bet365)