WNBA playoffs best bets: First-round predictions, picks for Sunday, Sept. 22

Bryan Fonseca's Dream vs. Liberty Player Prop Prediction

Sunday, Sept. 22

1 p.m. ET

ESPN

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton Over 9.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton went over 9.5 points in four of her last seven games to end the season.

As rotations tighten, we're expecting her to continue her role as a crucial fixture in Liberty lineups, even if this series against the Atlanta Dream isn't expected to be terribly competitive.

Laney-Hamilton is a sneaky good playoff performer too. Last year, she played in 10 playoff games, scoring 10 or more in nine of them. Her over/under was often around 12.5, which she cleared much more often than not down the stretch of the season, and in the playoffs.

Last year, her minutes jumped from 30 to 36 per game from regular season to playoffs. If she gets another boost, expect to see some overs, and for this prop line to rise to double figures before too long.

Pick: Betnijah Laney-Hamilton Over 9.5 Points (-105)

Joe Dellera's Dream vs. Liberty Player Prop Pick

Sunday, Sept. 22

1 p.m. ET

ESPN

Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Liberty face off against the Atlanta Dream in Round 1 of the WNBA Playoffs as the overall Number 1-seed. Stewie was excellent this season and averaged 20.4 ppg in 32.7 minutes per game.

Sunday's matchup against the Dream is exploitable. She averaged 20.0 ppg against them this season, but that number does not tell the entire story. In the regular season finale, she scored 16 points in just 16.5 minutes. In the other games she scored 22, 17, and 25 on the way to three Liberty victories.

Not only is this a good matchup for Stewie, but l expect to see her play more minutes.

Last season, She played 38 minutes per game during the playoffs, and the fewest she played during that stretch was 35. That would be a significant uptick in minutes and opportunities for her.

I'll back Stewie to score over 19.5 points against the Dream.

Pick: Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 Points (-115)

Michael Fiddle's Fever vs. Sun Spread Pick

Sunday, Sept. 22

3 p.m. ET

ABC

Sun -4.5 (-120, Caesars)

By Michael Fiddle

This best bet is based on value of a betting line more than the product on the court. One book currently has this line at -4.5 (-110), while the consensus on the board appears to be -5 with vig above -110, or -5.5 (-110).

Seeing one number different on the board, and understanding the value of the number 5 in WNBA spreads, I want to pick up the -4.5 regardless of the teams or situation.

When I factor in opinion, I do support backing the veteran home Connecticut Sun against the rookie led Indiana Fever, led by Caitlin Clark and their second best player, Alliyah Boston, is also only in her second year in the WNBA, and will be playing her first playoff game.

I expect the Sun to play very physical and their length should cause problems for the Fever offense. I already bet this at -4.5, along with DeWanna Bonner over 14.5 points.

Pick: Sun -4.5 (-120)

Bryan Fonseca's Fever vs. Sun Team Total Bet

Sunday, Sept. 22

3 p.m. ET

ABC

Fever Team Total Under 79.5 (-113, FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

The Sun haven't allowed 79.5 points at home much this season.

Teams have scored 80 or more points just four times against the Sun this year, once in overtime, and none of them were the Fever. That's four times in 20 home games.

Now, the Fever haven't been there in three months, and went 9-5 post Olympic break, but still, scoring 80+ in Connecticut is a huge ask, especially given Indy's lack of playoff experience.

The Fever have scored 84 twice against the Sun, but both were in Indiana. I'll go under here.

Pick: Fever Team Total Under 79.5 (-113)

Joe Dellera's Fever vs. Sun Player Prop Bet

Sunday, Sept. 22

3 p.m. ET

ABC

Alyssa Thomas Over 18.5 PTS + REB (-110, FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

Absolutely love this spot for Alyssa Thomas against the Indiana Fever as they kick off the WNBA Playoffs.

AT has dominated this matchup all season long averaging 15.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game. She’s cleared this 18.5 points + rebounds line in all four games.

Additionally, when AT gets to the playoffs, she usually sees an uptick to her scoring. This roster is primarily unchanged from last season and she saw a scoring bump of +2.6 in the playoffs. She also played nearly every possible minute averaging 38.9 minutes per game.

This is also a significant pace-up spot for the Sun. The Fever have played at the second-fastest pace since the break, and although things tend to tighten up in the playoffs, there should be plenty of opportunities for Thomas to excel.

Pick: Alyssa Thomas Over 18.5 PTS + REB (-110)

Bryan Fonseca's Fever vs. Sun Player Prop Prediction

Sunday, Sept. 22

3 p.m. ET

ABC

DiJonai Carrington Over 13.5 Points (+100, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

These odds for something that's happened four out of four times this season?

Cool — gimme that.

As noted in my Game 1 guide, DiJonai Carrington went over this number in all four games, averaging 17.8 points versus the Fever, scoring 16, 14, 22 and 19.

She plays better against the Fever than she does against anyone else, and against that defense — which can be a turnstile at times — she'll have her opportunities to cash this.

Pick: DiJonai Carrington Over 13.5 Points (+100)

Joe Dellera's Fever vs. Sun Series Prop Bet

Sunday, Sept. 22

3 p.m. ET

ABC

Alyssa Thomas Series Rebound Leader (+150, DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Alyssa Thomas should crush this entire series. Her primary competition is Aliyah Boston, who she has dominated the last two seasons.

We already know why I like AT as both a scoring and rebounding threat and bet over 18.5 points + rebounds earlier. But from a head-to-head perspective, AT has recorded 11, 17, 7, 14, 10, 14, 18, and 6 rebounds. Aliyah has recorded double-digit boards against AT just once in her career.

In the scoring department, AT has found success and usually sees an uptick during the playoffs, but I think this is a creative way to anticipate some struggles from Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell. Mitchell has averaged just 15.2 ppg against the Sun since 2022, and Clark is averaging only 16.5 against the Sun, the third-lowest average for her against all WNBA teams.

Thomas to lead the series in scoring at +1800 may also be worth a sprinkle.

Pick: Alyssa Thomas Series Rebound Leader (+150)

Bryan Fonseca's Storm vs. Aces ATS Pick

Sunday, Sept. 22

10 p.m. ET

ESPN

Aces -7.5 (-110, Bet365)

By Bryan Fonseca

I want to say that the Seattle Storm will be more competitive than we think. They entered the season with the third-shortest odds to win the title at +900, and the expectation was that they'd be the best challenge to the Las Vegas Aces outside of the New York Liberty.

And while they hit their over (25-15 finish, wins total was 23.5 preseason) for the year by posting a record of 25-15, they were still outpaced by five teams and went just 8-7 after the Olympic break, ending the season unsteady ground.

Moreover, they went 1-3 against the Aces this season, with the one win arriving on June 7, their first matchup of the year.

Speaking of unsteady, the Aces were exactly that for much of the season, but they won 9-of-10 entering the playoffs, and it looks like they're back.

Pick: Aces -7.5 (-110)

Michael Fiddle's Storm vs. Aces Spread Prediction

Sunday, Sept. 22

10 p.m. ET

ESPN

Aces -7.5 (-110, Hard Rock)

By Michael Fiddle

The Las Vegas Aces are the two-time defending champs ready to roll again in the playoffs. Despite coming in as the 4-seed and struggling a bit earlier this season, they have looked healthy and dominant over the last two weeks.

One of those games comes very recently against the Seattle Storm, last Tuesday September 17. This game was critical because it was essentially a battle for home court advantage in this matchup.

The game was played in Seattle, and still the Aces closed at -8.5 point favorites. They would go on to win by 13 and cover the number as a long road favorite. Now we are back in Vegas with a repeat matchup and the price is -7.5.

I understand Jewell Lloyd returns for the Storm, but the change in home court advantage is worth more than the returning player. I expect this line to close somewhere around -8.5 again.

Pick: Aces -7.5 (-110)

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