After Week 4, 26 undefeated teams remain in FBS.
With a pair of undefeated games in Week 5, those numbers are guaranteed to drop this weekend. But the losers of Illinois-Penn State and Georgia-Alabama won't be the only ones disappointed on Saturday.
Below are eight teams we believe will lose for the first time this season in Week 5, ranked from our most (1) to least (8) confident predictions.
Note: All times are Eastern.
vs. Fresno State (3-1, 1-0 in MWC) • 3:30 p.m., FS1
UNLV took a massive, stunning hit when quarterback Matthew Sluka, who transferred from FCS Holy Cross, left the program. In a statement posted to social media, Sluka alleged that "certain representations that were made to me...were not upheld after I enrolled," and "it became clear that these commitments would not be fulfilled in the future."
— Matthew Sluka (@MatthewSluka) September 25, 2024
Sluka was integral to UNLV's rushing offense, which has averaged 293.3 yards per game on 52.7 attempts per game (5.6 yards per carry). The former FCS Holy Cross quarterback led the Rebels with 253 rushing yards.
Fresno State's only loss was in its opener at No. 12 Michigan (3-1, 1-0 in Big Ten), 30-10. The Bulldogs have averaged 44 points per game in their three games since that loss, and their offense will continue humming as UNLV navigates the quarterback position without Sluka.
at No. 25 Boise State (2-1), 10 p.m., FS1
The Pac-12 is alive and well, thanks to Washington State. Its goal-line stand against Washington (3-1, 1-0 in Big Ten) in Week 3 to preserve a 24-19 win sent a message the Cougars won't be forgotten amid college football's conference realignment frenzy.
The Broncos nearly pulled off their own statement victory in Week 2, narrowly losing at No. 8 Oregon (3-0), 37-34, on a last-second field goal. The race for the mid-major automatic qualifier in the 12-team College Football Playoff is already heating up, and Boise State will notch a significant victory over Washington State to improve its resume.
vs. North Carolina (3-1) • 4 p.m., ESPN2
Duke has exceeded expectations in its undefeated start, sitting just a half-game behind its over-under win total entering Week 1 (4.5). Former Texas quarterback Maalik Murphy, has 1,017 passing yards, and the defense is allowing an average of 15.2 points per game, 28th in the country.
North Carolina was so bad in a 70-50 loss against James Madison that head coach Mack Brown threatened to quit. (He later backtracked from his retirement ultimatum.)
The Tar Heels will put that embarrassing loss behind them against the rival Blue Devils on the strength of their rushing offense, led by sensational running back Omarion Hampton (85 carries, 555 yards, six touchdowns).
As bad as the defense was against the Dukes, it's allowing 106.8 yards per game (3.1 yards per carry). Duke averages 104.5 yards on the ground (3.2 yards per carry). If North Carolina can make Duke one-dimensional, Murphy, who is tied for the most interceptions thrown in the ACC (four), will likely make mistakes.
at No. 9 Penn State (3-0) • 7:30 p.m., NBC
Illinois needed overtime to beat Nebraska (3-1, 0-1 in Big Ten) in Week 4 and gets a Penn State squad coming off a mini-bye after throttling Kent State (0-4) 56-0.
Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer has been excellent, completing 71.4 percent of his attempts for 862 yards and a Big Ten-high 10 touchdowns. The defense has held opponents to 188 passing yards per game and 292.3 total yards per game.
A road night game against Penn State is an incredibly difficult challenge, particularly with the Penn State offense, led by quarterback Drew Allar and running back Nicholas Singleton, firing on all cylinders. Allar is averaging 12.6 yards per attempt, completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 729 yards, while Singleton has 37 carries, 314 yards (8.5 yards per attempt) and four total touchdowns.
at UAB (1-2), 12 p.m., ESPN 2
Navy kept its perfect record intact with a 56-44 win over Memphis — which beat Florida State the previous week — in Week 4.
It travels to Birmingham on Saturday and gets a fresh UAB team coming off a bye.
The Blazers jumped out to a 10-0 lead at Arkansas (3-1, 1-0 in SEC) in an eventual 37-27 Week 3 loss.
Trent Dilfer's squad has had two weeks to plan for the Navy triple-option offense, so it's had plenty of time to prepare for the unique challenge that attack presents.
at Baylor (2-2, 0-1 in Big 12) • 12 p.m., FS1
BYU has been here before. The Cougars started strong last season, including winning on the road at Arkansas to improve to 3-0, but lost seven of its last nine to finish the season 5-7.
In 2022, BYU followed a win over Associated Press No. 9 Baylor by being thrashed by No. 25 Oregon, 41-20.
This week, after a dominant 38-9 win over Kansas State, is the perfect time for BYU to lay an egg. Baylor is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Colorado, giving up a Hail Mary on the final play of regulation and losing on a fumble at the goal line in overtime.
The Bears should be upset over how last week ended, and they'll take out their anger against the Cougars.
at No. 16 Notre Dame (3-1) • 3:30 p.m., Peacock
Former Alabama wide receiver Ja'Corey Brooks has been outstanding in his first season at Louisville, catching 17 passes for 297 yards (17.5 yards per reception) and two touchdowns. He's quickly developed a strong rapport with quarterback Tyler Shough, who has 850 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions through three games.
Louisville's rush defense allows 87.3 yards per game (2.5 yards per carry) but will be tested against a Notre Dame offense finding its groove as a run-first attack. Running back Jeremiyah Love and quarterback Riley Leonard both have other 300 rushing yards, and backup running back Jadarian Price (26 carries, 193 yards) joins them in averaging at least seven yards per rush attempt.
Notre Dame already has six interceptions, and starting outside corners Benjamin Morrison and Christian Gray have combined to allow 17 receptions on 36 targets (47.2 percent) for 136 yards (eight yards per reception), no touchdowns, five pass breakups and one interception. (h/t Pro Football Focus)
at No. 4 Alabama (3-0) • 7:30 p.m., ABC, ESPN+
Alabama? An underdog at home? That's bait.
The Tide have been every bit as dominant this season under head coach Kalen DeBoer as they were under former head coach Nick Saban, outscoring their first three opponents by an average of 40.3 points per game.
Alabama's and Georgia's defenses are excellent, so Saturday's game might come down to which offense can break a big play first.
Alabama freshman wide receiver Ryan Williams (10 receptions, 285 yards, four touchdowns) has been electrifying, and he'll be the difference-maker on Saturday as the Tide earn their first signature win of the DeBoer era.
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