Why Pirates' Paul Skenes should get serious Cy Young consideration

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie starting pitcher Paul Skenes concluded his 2024 season on Saturday afternoon with a dominant two-inning outing against the New York Yankees. It was an outing that saw him record three strikeouts, including back-to-back strikeouts of superstars Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in the bottom of the first inning.

His line for the season is an 11-3 record, a 0.95 WHIP, 170 strikeouts in 133 innings and a staggering 1.96 ERA. It is one of the best rookie seasons ever for a pitcher, and it should put him in line to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award over San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill.

It should also put him at the top of the discussion for the National League Cy Young Award. 

That will get some pushback, especially from Atlanta Braves fans, because Chris Sale has been outstanding for them and is set to lead the National League in wins, ERA and strikeouts. It has been a truly great season — and certainly Cy Young-worthy. 

Skenes, however, is right there with him, and if you are simply asking the question of "who is the best starting pitcher in baseball right now," it is hard to give an answer that is not Skenes. 

The only thing that is keeping Skenes from being atop the NL leaderboard in ERA is the fact he does not have enough innings to qualify for the lead. 

That will ultimately be the argument against him in the Cy Young discussion (lack of innings), but we are not talking about that big of a cap. 

Sale has started only six more games and thrown 44 more innings as of Saturday, with Sale still looking at one more start this season. It is not like Skenes has started only a handful of games. He's been a regular in the Pirates rotation since early May and has been nothing short of dominant almost every time out. He has taken no-hitters into the seventh inning on two different occasions. He was the starting pitcher for the National League in the All-Star Game. He has allowed more than two earned runs in a start just three times and never more than four earned runs. 

The Pirates went 15-8 in the games he started, and that was with them wasting a handful of starts including a pair of 2-1 losses, a 3-1 loss and three games where the bullpen blew leads of four runs or more. They could have easily gone 19-4 in his starts. 

They are only 61-77 in the games he did not start. 

His ERA is nearly half a run lower than Sale's, while he has a better WHIP (0.95 to 1.01), is striking out more batters per nine innings (11.5 to 11.4) and is only 0.5 behind in WAR (6.3 for Sale to 5.8 for Skenes) despite starting six fewer games.

Skenes' 5.8 WAR is fifth best in all of Major League Baseball, and he is the only starter in the top 30 to have made fewer than 25 starts. 

In other words — he has been dominant. As dominant as any other pitcher in baseball, and a strong argument can be made that he is already the best starting pitcher in the league. 

That, ultimately, is what the Cy Young Award is supposed to be about. There is no official criteria or set of requirements, and we have seen relief pitchers win it in the past with significantly fewer innings than Skenes has this season. 

Sale is likely to win it. He probably will win it. Skenes still has a very convincing argument to win it himself.