WNBA best bets, predictions, picks for Sunday, Sept. 29

Bryan Fonseca's Aces vs. Liberty Player Prop Bet

Sunday, Sept. 29

3:00 p.m. ET

ABC

Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists (-150, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Chelsea Gray has gone over this line in seven of her last eight matchups against the Liberty, dating back to last year's regular season.

Her playmaking simply dices up the Liberty, which is a good sign for Aces shooters such as Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young, and of course, A'ja Wilson as a roll partner — even though this hasn't been the easiest matchup.

I like Gray with the juice here, and I'd also probably go over 6.5 if it's plus-money, albeit with less ambition.

Pick: Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists (-150)

Joe Dellera's Aces vs. Liberty Prop Prediction

Sunday, Sept. 29

3:00 p.m. ET

ABC

Kelsey Plum Over 16.5 Points (-115, bet365)

By Joe Dellera

Plum thrives in this matchup against Sabrina lonescu. Sab can get a bit lackadaisical on defense and the one thing you cannot do when it comes to defending Plum, is give her any space.

Plum has exceeded this 16.5 line in 10 of 14 head-to-head matchups against Ionescu, averaging 19.1 points per game in those contests. She scored 18+ points in all 10 H2H over results, while also managing to score 20+ in seven of those outings, and she was even better in the Finals, averaging 21.3 points, with three 20-point performances.

Even with the Liberty’s lineup changes, this is still a good spot for Plum. And with Gray seeing more floor time, it gives Plum the leverage to consistently attack, and that's just what we need in a matchup that’s been more difficult for A’ja.

Pick: Kelsey Plum Over 16.5 Points (-115)

Bryan Fonseca's Sun vs. Lynx Prop Player Prop Pick

Sunday, Sept. 29

7:30 p.m. ET

ESPN

Alyssa Thomas Over 31.5 PRA (-104, FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

Alyssa Thomas has one triple-double in three games against the Lynx this season, and that's +370 — I'd sprinkle on that in addition to this PRA prop.

In three outings against Minnesota, she's recorded 30, 36 and 37 PRA, and even though I'm not expecting a high scoring series — the bookies aren't either — this is a healthy spot for AT thanks to her ability to free up Sun' shooters such as Marina Mabrey and Dijonai Carrington. DeWanna Bonner as well, although she can also create on her own.

But if the Lynx are content with daring AT to beat them from the mid-range, she can — it worked against the Fever over and over. But moreover, she should have playmaking opportunities here against a Lynx defense that recorded a second-best 10.9 steals per 100 possessions during the regular season.

When AT is dared to shoot, she can hit, and when pressured, she can find others, plus, she's a top two rebounder in this series, and could be No. 1 on any night.

Pick: Alyssa Thomas Over 31.5 PRA (-104)

Bryan Fonseca's Sun vs. Lynx Team Total Bet

Sunday, Sept. 29

7:30 p.m. ET

ESPN

Lynx Team Total Under 79.5 (-110, BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

I don't necessarily think this means the Sun will win the game, but if we're expecting a slugfest (and I am for the most part), I think 80 points will be hard to come by in this series.

Neither team in this series broke 80 in regulation in their three matchups this season. The Lynx beat the Sun 83-82 in overtime back in May, but the score was 72-72, even going into the extra period.

The total opened at 150.5 and has jumped to 154.5 since, but rather than taking the full-game under, I feel more confident in Minnesota getting capped in the high 70s this time around. As always, I'm open to being wrong and could adjust after our Game 1 sample, but this is how I currently see it. These are the two best defenses in the WNBA, after all.

Pick: Lynx Team Total Under 79.5 (-110)