Unexpected Big Ten team is a dark-horse College Football Playoff contender

The Hoosiers, who defeated Maryland (3-2, 0-2 in Big Ten) 42-28 in their home conference opener in Week 5, are 16th in ESPN's Football Power Index.

Indiana has beaten its first two Big Ten opponents (UCLA and Maryland) by a combined score of 84-41. Its 35.8-point average margin of victory ranks sixth in the country, trailing No. 1 Texas (5-0, 1-0 in SEC), No. 6 Ole Miss (4-1, 0-1 in SEC), No. 3 Ohio State (4-0, 1-0 in Big Ten) and No. 5 Tennessee (4-0, 1-0 in SEC).

Only No. 7 Miami (5-0, 1-0 in ACC) has scored more points (247) than Indiana (244). Per Game On Paper, entering Week 5, IU sixth-year senior quarterback Kurtis Rourke ranks second in FBS in expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.72), trailing only Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (0.73).

Rourke, who played at Ohio from 2019-23, is 93-of-127 (73.2%) for 1,372 yards (10.8 yards per attempt), 11 touchdowns and two interceptions this season.

ESPN's FPI currently gives the Hoosiers a 39.6% chance to reach the CFP.

Indiana has a favorable schedule, including winnable road games against Northwestern (2-2, 0-1 in Big Ten) and Michigan State (3-2, 1-1 in Big Ten) and contests at home against Nebraska (4-1, 1-1 in Big Ten) and Washington (3-2, 1-1 in Big Ten).

While none of those games are gimmes, the Hoosiers could enter their season's toughest two-game set at a perfect 9-0.

They play No. 12 Michigan (4-1, 2-0 in Big Ten) and No. 3 Ohio State (4-0, 1-0 in Big Ten) in Weeks 11 and 13, with a bye week in between. 

If Indiana splits those two games, it could earn a trip to the Big Ten championship game and the CFP.

That would have seemed preposterous before the season began. But thanks to Indiana's hot start, it's closer to becoming a reality than one might think.