NFL betting: What to look for in NFL Week 5

Can the Saints do the thing?

You know — the "be the team that beats the Chiefs" thing.

New Orleans is a 5.5-point underdog at DraftKings that has gone 3-1-0 ATS so far this season. Alvin Kamara ranks fourth in the NFL with 362 rushing yards while both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed rank within the top 20 for both receptions and receiving yards. They are also part of a healthy offensive corps — which is more than can be said about the Chiefs, who just had to add Rashee Rice to their long list of injured stars. (Cue up the Davante Adams rumors.)

The one big thing that will make many bettors press pause on backing the Saints to win straight up is that Derek Carr is 3-14 against Kansas City over his career. 

Then again, the Chiefs very narrowly covered a 6.5-point spread in Week 4 against an injury-riddled Los Angeles Chargers team. So if you aren't confident enough in the Saints to win, they're still a good bet to cover and make things interesting.

Can the Jaguars do the other thing?

Doug Pederson's team is the 3-point favorite at DK against an inconsistent Colts team that got a big boost in Week 4 with veteran Joe Flacco under center in place of an injured Anthony Richardson. So what does that mean for betting on this team?

Richardson is questionable to play on Sunday, but so is Jonathan Taylor and that would greatly hinder Indy's run game. That could be mitigated by Flacco having a passer rating of 82.5 against the Jags over his career. 

Then again, the Jaguars have won four of the last five meetings with the Colts by at least 10 points each time. 

This could be a real nail-biter whether you're a fan or someone with skin in the game. Although Sports Illustrated is backing the Colts to cover.

"If Flacco starts, I think the Colts’ passing game will get a boost against the Jaguars, who have allowed 1,091 passing yards this season – the second most in the NFL," SI's Peter Dewey writes. "Until the Jags prove that they can play winning football – they haven’t at all in 2024 – there’s no way that I’m laying points with them. "

Should you bet on the Sam Darnold Bowl?

As YardBarker discussed earlier this week, it seems impossible to bet against the Vikings right now. Now, Sam Darnold prepares to face his former team on a Vikings squad that is 4-0 on the season, 3-0 in games played in London and a 3-point favorite at DK to win in Week 5.

To be fair, not everyone is backing Minnesota to keep the winning streak alive.  Sporting News believes the Jets will upset the Vikings because Darnold will be going up against a pass defense that ranks second overall in the NFL. It could be added that the Vikings have a very weak pass defense, and that Aaron Rodgers has a 17-11-1 record lifetime against Minnesota. 

But don't forget, Rodgers got sacked five times last week by the Denver Broncos and New York's offense remains inconsistent. (Whether there's beef between Rodgers and Garrett Wilson is a whole other story.) 

The pundits seem especially split on this one. You may be better off fading this game and putting your money elsewhere since New York is so unpredictable.

Game to target instead?

Giants at Seahawks. Geno Smith has Seattle rolling at 3-1 and has a 2-0 record against New York. The Giants do have a win at Lumen Field in 2020 but have lost six of their last seven against the Seahawks regardless of venue. 

Seattle is a 6-point favorite at DK in this one and should feed off of their home crowd support to advance to 4-1.