Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR's Talladega playoff race

Talladega Superspeedway is perhaps the most unpredictable track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit. This is especially true during playoff time when the track annually hosts its second event of the season.

Earlier in the year, Tyler Reddick won in an exciting finish as Michael McDowell spun from the lead, and the field erupted into chaos behind him. 

Now, with the stakes higher and many drivers' championship fates set to be impacted in a major way, here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender, and a dark horse — and one to avoid for Sunday's YellaWood 500.

Favorite: Joey Logano (+1000, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Logano won the most recent superspeedway race, winning the playoff opener at Atlanta. He and his No. 22 team have been stronger throughout the season and maybe peaking at the right time. There would be no better way to cement Logano as a championship dark horse than with a win on Sunday, and he's listed with the second-best odds behind only his teammate Ryan Blaney.

One has to think Blaney will try to play things more conservatively, given his comfier points position entering Talladega. Logano, though, sits squarely on the bubble to advance to the next round and may need to go for broke. If anyone is the favorite this weekend, it should be him.

Contender: William Byron (+1300)

Don't look now, but the No. 24 is heating up. After a summer lull, Byron has shown significantly more speed since the playoffs started and is coming off a runner-up finish last week in Kansas. He's no stranger to Victory Lane on drafting tracks, with two career wins at Daytona and the repaved Atlanta, but has never won at Talladega.

That has a chance to change on Sunday, and Byron is listed as tied for the fifth-best odds at +1300. He's the points leader entering the event, so while that could mean he plays it safe to avoid the inevitable carnage, it also means he has the most wiggle room to take risks. Don't be surprised if Byron reminds the field why he was considered a title favorite earlier in the season.

Dark horse: Austin Cindric (+2000)

Any number of names could go here, as is the case anytime NASCAR visits a superspeedway track. However, for Sunday, we'll go with a playoff driver who will need a big points day to keep his season alive and seems undervalued by the oddsmakers. 

That would be Cindric, listed at +2000, tied with several other drivers for the ninth-best odds. This is a driver who led a race-high 92 laps in Atlanta several weeks ago and won the 2022 Daytona 500. He is always a threat on these types of tracks, but he's currently dead last in points among the 12 playoff drivers. He's got nothing to lose and everything to gain, and that's why he'll be a dangerous man this weekend.

Avoid: Brad Keselowski (+1200)

Sure, it's a superspeedway so that anything can happen — and Keselowski is a six-time winner at Talladega. But he's gotten ice cold as of late, with no finishes better than 19th since the start of the playoffs and just an overall lack of speed. 

Despite that, Keselowski is listed as tied with Kyle Busch for the third-best odds at +1200, and something about that feels off. It seems almost as if the 2012 Cup Series champion has thrown in the towel on the season, especially after being eliminated from the playoffs, so don't spend your money on him this weekend.