NFL Week 6 Luck Rankings picks: Four games fit thresholds

NFL Luck Rankings Week 6 Games

Texans vs. Patriots

Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Luck Difference: 25
Luck Gap: 56.1%

New England enters Week 6 as the unlucky team against the Texans with a Luck Gap of 56.1%. Not only that, but the Patriots are also in for a quarterback change with rookie QB Drake Maye taking over under center for Jacoby Brissett. That news didn’t impact the betting market with New England still installed as a 7-point underdog.

The Texans are the very public side, currently getting 90% of the bets and 86% of the money according to our PRO Report, but books don’t seem to be budging off this number.

It’s going to be a very tough matchup for Maye to make his first NFL start with Houston’s strong pass rush going up against a struggling Patriots offensive line. However, on the other side of the ball Texans WR Nico Collins has been placed on injured reserve while teammate Tank Dell hasn’t regained his form from last season before a leg injury ended his rookie year.

Two of Houston’s wins — against Indianapolis and Jacksonville — have been losses by our Expected Score metric. Houston has four one-score wins by a combined 15 points, and its loss was by 27 points to give it a total point differential of -12.

I’m not in a rush to bet this given the public is all over Houston, and we did see a 7.5 earlier in the week. I’ll wait this one out, especially to see some injury reports which will help evaluate the matchup a bit better. I do like New England prior to knowing where things shake out.

Verdict: Wait

Commanders vs. Ravens

Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Luck Total: -7.7

The Beltway battle between Washington and Baltimore has a total of 51.5 as of Wednesday afternoon, but this game has a pretty strong Luck Under signal according to our Expected Scores. This is a massive Pros vs. Joes battle according to our data with 73% of the tickets on the over but 64% of the money on the under.

Games with a Luck Total below -5 between Weeks 5-7 are 33-18-1 (64.4%) to the under, including 30-12-1 (70.9%) to the under if the Luck Total lies between -5.5 and -15.

This game is a battle of two run-heavy teams that have both been winning the time of possession battle. Barring overtime, these teams can’t possess the ball for 64.5 minutes combined.

Fifty-one is an especially key number for totals with 4.3% of all games since 2018 ending on this number. If the closing total is between 48.5 and 54.5 (within a field goal of 51.5), then 51 is the most common result with 6.0% of these games ending with 51 points.

So, I’m inclined to take the under now, especially with some books shading toward the under with their juice.

Verdict: Bet Under 51.5

Colts vs. Titans

Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Luck Total: -6.6

Tennessee and Indianapolis suffer from the opposite problem of both the Commanders and Ravens — these teams combine for just 56.75 minutes of possession this season. That means we need to adjust expectations slightly since someone has to win the time-of-possession battle.

The two key factors in this game will be which quarterback starts for the Colts and whether the Titans can stop giving up unnecessary points through pick-sixes and blocked punts. Tennessee has given up 22 points in four games on opposing defensive or special teams touchdowns. Eliminate that, and there’s a strong chance this game stays under the total.

If QB Anthony Richardson starts, I definitely like the under here. The Colts offense run by either him or Joe Flacco has produced relatively similar defense-adjusted efficiency numbers, but more clock should run with the Colts leaning more run-heavy with Richardson under center.

If Flacco starts, the under is definitely still in play but I’d look to see if the total continues to climb. It has already risen during the week from 42 to 43, with some books even serving up a 43.5 right now. I make this total exactly 43.5 if Flacco starts but bump that down in a Richardson start.

The public has 89% of tickets on the over, but our PRO Report is showing signals of sharp action, big money and a PRO System on the under.

Since 44 is an incredibly key number and Richardson isn’t certain to play, as well as the public heavily betting the over, I’m inclined to wait to see if a 44 pops up. Richardson practiced on Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean he’s necessarily a sure thing to start.

On the other hand, there’s also a low but non-zero chance that wind will be a factor on Sunday in Nashville, which would help the under. If that forecast looks to be more windy as the week moves on, we’ll certainly see this total move down.

I’m not sure how the line will move because of all of those factors, so it’s probably best to wait.

Verdict: Wait, but jump on the under if we hear Richardson is starting or if a total of 44 pops up.

Bills vs. Jets

Monday, Oct. 14, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Luck Total: -5.3

This "Monday Night Football" matchup between the Bills and Jets is a Luck Under with a Luck Total of -5.3, but that barely crosses the -5.0 threshold.

There’s also a lot of uncertainty here with Robert Saleh getting fired and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich taking over as the Jets’ interim head coach. For the Bills, QB Josh Allen is set to play despite some questions about whether the concussion protocol was properly followed last week after his head hit the turf in the Bills’ 23-20 loss to the Texans.

This year, games involving the Bills and Jets have averaged 42.6 points, but the Expected Scores from those games show a total averaging just 40.0 points. A lot of that Expected Score has been helped by the Bills’ offensive output against Arizona and Jacksonville, two of the league’s worst defenses. However, that’s canceled out by the Jets playing four bottom-half offenses, according to DVOA, including three in the bottom eight.

I think this total is pretty fair, and there’s a chance that this line moves up with 70% of the money on the over.

Given the Luck Total barely clears the threshold and has a relatively fair total at 41 with some uncertainty around the Jets, I’m just going to pass.

Verdict: Pass