Has a championship favorite emerged in the NASCAR playoffs?

With NASCAR’s current playoff format, it's difficult to claim that any driver, at any point of the season, can be considered the sole championship favorite. 

After all, making it to the Championship Four is an incredibly difficult task, and with the championship being decided by a single race, an off-day can derail title hopes even after a strong 35-race stretch. 

Following the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, however, the time seems right to bestow upon Kyle Larson the title of championship favorite. 

The numbers speak for themselves: Larson leads the Cup Series in victories with five and has led 1,551 laps on the season. The intangibles also stand out, as Larson and the No. 5 team have made the Championship Four twice in the three seasons they’ve been together, and won the championship in 2021. In a sport where experience reigns supreme, being seasoned veterans of the championship hunt is a huge advantage. 

However, the most important aspect in determining Larson’s status as the championship favorite might be in the past. A fourth-place finish at Talladega on Sunday netted Larson just his fourth top-10 in 20 starts at the track that’s been his archnemesis during his career. 

The best superspeedway race of Larson’s life puts the 2021 champ 52 points above the cut line going into the Round of 12 finale at the Charlotte Roval. The Roval played host to a Larson victory during his 2021 run, but was also the end of his postseason story in 2022 - a result that could be partially attributed to a middling 18th-place finish at Talladega the week prior. 

With an advantage over the cut line that ensures advancement into the Round of 8 - barring a Talladega-sized disaster, that is - Larson should encounter a mostly stress-free day in Charlotte before heading to the Round of 8. The penultimate round of the playoffs lines up better for Larson than any other driver in the field - he’s won at Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami and Martinsville since the inception of the Next-Gen car in 2022. 

If Larson advances to the Championship Four, a repeat of his 2021 championship seems like a good bet. Larson was the championship runner-up to Ryan Blaney in 2023, faltering late due to a loose car that just didn’t have the handling that Larson needed it to have. With a new notebook and plenty of motivation on their side, crew chief Cliff Daniels would have the opportunity to give Larson exactly the car he needs to win the title. 

No driver’s fate is ever guaranteed in the wacky world of modern NASCAR racing, but with the hurdle of Talladega cleared, Larson’s path to a second championship has been paved in gold.