Week 7 college football betting primer: What to know before placing bets

Saturday, Oct. 12

Missouri vs. UMass

This game is on here solely to earn your sympathy as your humble scribe will miss most of this loaded slate to watch his Tigers in person in the college football cathedral of McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts.

Mizzou is a 27-point favorite in a game it probably needs to win by 100 in order to feel good about itself after getting boatraced last week.

UMass is not a good team, but it’s feisty in the secondary; it’s in the middle of the pack in FBS for its metrics against the pass, the only area where it’s not bottom of the country.

The Minutemen’s best chance to cover will be to slow down Mizzou’s talented wideouts, including Luther Burden III, who’s all that and a bag of chips.

Oklahoma vs. Texas

The Red River Rivalry is one of the true “throw out the record books” games. The annual clash between the Sooners and the Longhorns — this will be the 120th meeting — is defined by a history chock full of upsets, chaos, comebacks, chokes and deep-fried Oreos from the Texas State fair.

In the past 12 years, double-digit underdogs are 5-0 ATS. Perhaps that’s a good sign for the Sooners (+14.5).

Penn State vs. USC

Last year, perhaps no two teams had more disparate identities. Penn State had a rugged defense and ground game and could barely throw the ball. USC had a dynamic offense, but was lacking in toughness and had a tissue paper defense.

Now with savvy coaching hires — offensive playcaller Andy Kotelnicki in Happy Valley and defensive guru D’Anton Lynn in Heritage Hall — these teams have become more complete.

This game, with USC getting a field goal at home, could come down to who has more successfully adapted from their polar opposite’s identity.

Mississippi State vs. Georgia

Georgia rebounded from its thrilling loss against Alabama to sit on Auburn for 60 minutes. Mississippi State is the worst team in the SEC and is getting used to having someone sit on it for 60 minutes.

Last week, against Texas, MSU drastically slowed things down now that quarterback Blake Shapen is out for the season. The Bulldogs changed from one of the highest tempos in the country to a slow one in order to minimize the damage.

They might use that same formula here in a spot in which they’re 34-point underdogs.

The majority of you think Georgia — which has failed to cover in four straight games — will again come up short against the number; 93% of the over 4,300 bets tracked on the Action app think Mississippi State will cover.

Arkansas State vs. Texas State

At 64.5, this is the second-highest total on the board.

Texas State, which is favored by two touchdowns, has an almost 65-spot drop in SP+ rankings from its offense (good) to its defense (really bad).

Arkansas State is low in both, but also hung 77 points on these Bobcats last year with mostly the same cast of characters.

There are a lot of highlight, big-name programs playing on Saturday, but this under-the-radar game on ESPN’s streaming service should get fun and pointsy.

Florida vs. Tennessee

Florida has lost this game only twice in the past 20 years.

The Gators are getting more than two touchdowns — 15.5 points — to head to Neyland Stadium off of their two best showings of the year.

Meanwhile, the Volunteers are coming off a brutal loss to Arkansas.

Are the heavy home favorites still licking their wounds, or will they come out focused and sharp?

App State vs. Louisiana

One of the biggest discrepancies on the board is this weekend from Lafayette, as Louisiana’s offense, which is 25th in SP+, takes on Appalachian State’s extremely generous defense, which is 117th in SP+ for that side of the ball. Yikes.

Another big discrepancy is also in how this game is being bet. Based on the Action App tracking of almost 2,500 bets on this game, 93% of them are on the brand-name Mountaineers, but only 39% of the money is backing them.

That 54% discrepancy is the biggest of the weekend and indicates that sharp bettors are taking Louisiana and laying the 10.5 points.

Ole Miss vs. LSU

LSU, home underdogs of 3.5 points, have one major advantage over Ole Miss: rest. The Bayou Bengals are coming off their bye week, while the Rebs are one of a few teams in the country to not have a week of rest yet.

LSU might have another surprise in store for the Ole Miss defense. The LSU pass attack, 14th in EPA per drop back, is far and away better than any aerial outfit Ole Miss’ defense has had to face so far this year.

Ohio State vs. Oregon

It’s a top-three tilt from the Pacific Northwest, as Ohio State will take to Autzen Stadium favored by a field goal.

Both teams are undefeated on the year, but neither has really stretched out its legs and looked dominant yet.

Will one — or both — of these squads have another gear that they can reach back and hit?

Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky

What a ride for the Commodores last week in their monumental win over Alabama. Diego Pavia was an utter magician, and a big credit to the Vanderbilt coaching staff for a thorough game plan.

That’s one of the best wins in school history.

Now they face a Kentucky team, which has been dragging everyone into the muck so far this year.

Stuckey likes the under 46.5 in his Situational Spots column. He predicts it’ll be a challenge for Vanderbilt to execute after such an emotional victory, and Kentucky’s slow and physical style will muddy up the game.

“In a matchup between two snails, I’d expect a very slow-paced game with limited possessions and wouldn’t be surprised if Vandy came out a bit flat after its monumental win over Alabama. The ‘Dores may still be celebrating on Broadway as I write this.”

“Therefore, I think the best way to attack this potentially flat Vanderbilt spot is to go under the total, which I’m also splitting with its team total under 15.5 as well.”

Marshall vs. Georgia Southern

You all like points. I get it, I do too. Over football games are better than under games. (Sorry, Big Ten fans.)

To that end, of games tracked in our Action App, there are 25 matchups this weekend in which 80% or more of tracked bets are in agreement on a total — yet in only one of those 25 instances is the large united group on the under. (Hint, that game is this one.)

The people love points, and this game, with a total of 60, so obviously screams “under” that it alone bucks a one-out-of-25 trend.

Minnesota vs. UCLA

The Big Ten has gobbled up four new west coast teams, causing some hellacious travel itineraries for their members.

Considering these new cross-country matchups are also stylistic clashes, it’s no surprise then that Big Ten members are 1-8 straight up when traveling across more than two time zones.

Minnesota is favored as a road team in that exact high-mileage scenario.

Kansas State vs. Colorado

Colorado, after failing to cover itself in glory in a woeful effort in Week 2 at Nebraska, has rebounded and looks to be a contender in the Big 12.

The Buffs are more well-rounded than last year, and the offense is still an aerial assault with Shedeur Sanders and a bevy of receivers.

They’re getting a field goal at home against a perennial conference contender in Kansas State. But Collin Wilson makes a compelling case for the over 56.5 by highlighting how each offense has matchup advantages to exploit.

“Cornerbacks Jacob Parrish and Keenan Garber will be responsible for Hunter but have allowed 34-of-51 targets to be caught.”

“Kansas State will counter with a heavy rush attack that uses multiple run concepts. There’s one particular run concept the Buffaloes have struggled with, as man blocking has allowed opponents to produce a 60% Success Rate and a high number of explosives.”

“Both offenses have schematic advantages to put the ball into scoring position. Kansas State should see no resistance with a ground attack using run concepts that have gashed Colorado. Meanwhile, Sanders’ aerial attack won’t face much of a defense.”

Boise State vs. Hawaii

It’s been a rough few weeks for the traditional Heisman favorite prototype, the productive quarterbacks on top-10 teams.

Quinn Ewers’ injury cost him a few games worth of stats. Carson Beck looked helpless for a half in the biggest game of his season. Jalen Milroe’s team was ambushed by Vanderbilt.

This allowed a pair of non-traditional candidates — Colorado’s two-way titan Travis Hunter and Boise’s Ashton Jeanty — to take the lead. It’s been a horse race all season, and currently Jeanty is breaking away from the pack, both on the field and on the Heisman tote board at a consensus +225.

You can catch him in the late-night game from the island, where he’ll surely put up another ho-hum dominant effort against a Hawaii defense that’s 82nd in EPA allowed per rush.