Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Is Trevor Lawrence actually the problem for the Jaguars?

By Austen Bundy | Last updated Oct 18, 2024 12:04 PM ET

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) are off to their worst start through six weeks since 2021. Fans, reporters and pundits alike have been trying to find a common denominator, and they seem to have settled on blaming quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

But is he really the problem in Jacksonville? The numbers actually offer an interesting perspective.

Since Lawrence entered the league in 2021, Jacksonville players have dropped 113 passes. That's the most in the league in that span, 21 more than second place Kansas City, per ESPN's Michael DiRocco.

This would imply Lawrence's receivers, three of which were drafted in the fourth round or higher, simply can't catch his passes — that understandably seems like a shallow assessment.

But they're having a huge impact on Jacksonville's offense given those drops are nearly 6% of Lawrence's targets to them (1,948), including four dropped touchdowns in Week 6.

The drops have also seriously contributed to the former No. 1 overall pick's subpar career completion percentage (63.5), the 25th worst in the league since 2021 and the 14th worst in that span among passers who have started at least one game this season.

For comparison, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown 73 more targets than Lawrence in the same span (2,021) and his receivers have dropped 92 of them — that's 4.5%.

If Lawrence is actually the problem in Jacksonville, then these numbers would also suggest Mahomes is a problem for Kansas City — a problem who's won three Super Bowls.

Lawrence isn't entirely blameless, however. He's thrown 42 interceptions in four seasons under center; that's the third most in the league in that period, per Statmuse. Ironically, only Mahomes (45) and Buffalo's Josh Allen have thrown more (47).

The 25-year-old's career passer rating sits at 85.4, the 23rd worst in the league since 2021, and his adjusted QBR has never topped 56.9 in any season.

His 66 career passing touchdowns are the 17th most in the league, suboptimal for a No. 1 overall pick combined with the aforementioned statistical picture.

Other extenuating circumstances are present in Lawrence's poor performances, too. For example, he's the 10th-most sacked quarterback in the league since he entered it (109), suggesting Jacksonville's ever-struggling offensive line shoulders some of the blame as well.

Lawrence as the starting quarterback and former top draft selection makes for an easy target in the blame game, but he's clearly not the sole reason for Jacksonville's woes.

However, two playoff appearances (and one win) in four seasons will only buy a franchise player so much good grace with a fanbase for so long.

Either way, Lawrence and the Jaguars are running out of time to improve before change inevitably arrives, especially after the two agreed to a five-year, $275M extension in 2023.

Austen Bundy

Austen Bundy is a journalist and sports junkie from the Washington, D. C. area

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