Betting the NBA's awards futures: Where do Wemby, Ja Morant stand?

Let's talk about NBA awards. But instead of doing the usual groupthink predictions every writer does every season — Dallas' Luka Doncic for MVP, San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama for DPOY, Memphis' Zach Edey for ROY, etc. — let's look at the awards from a betting angle and focus on getting value on futures bets. 

Using DraftKings sportsbook betting odds as of Monday, we have displayed categories for each of the major awards you can bet on (Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year).

Let's define our terms before we dig in.

Betting favorite: Player with the lowest odds

Favorite bet: The top candidates typically win the awards, so their odds aren't always favorable. Which of the top candidates for the award has odds that are worth betting?

Best value bet: Which of the players that you could realistically see winning the award have the most disproportionate odds that will likely never be as favorable as they are today?

Long shot bet: If everything fell perfectly into place for this player, you could definitely see him in the mix for this award, so it might be worth placing a small wager on him for the thrill of it.

MVP

Betting favorite: Doncic (+370)

Favorite bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo (+800)

In the past six seasons, the "Greek Freak" has finished first, first, fourth, third, third and fourth in MVP voting. His offensive numbers have been better the past three seasons (30.5 PPG, 11.6 RPG, 6 APG, 57.4 percent shooting) than his two MVP seasons (28.5 PPG, 13 RPG, 5.8 APG, 56.6 percent shooting). If he can drag this old Bucks team to one of the top records in the league, you'll be happy about getting him at the 8-to-1 odds. 

Best value bet: Memphis' Ja Morant (+4000)

Both of Morant's top employers, the Grizzlies and Nike, are buying into the Morant reclamation project, and so are we. Before his off-the-court antics got in the way, he was leading Memphis to back-to-back No. 2 seeds in the West. If he were to pull that same feat again, the 40-to-1 MVP odds are out of whack. 

Long shot bet: Phoenix's Devin Booker (+12000)

Let's say Booker and Kevin Durant keep the positive momentum from their Olympic experience going and Phoenix follows suit of most Mike Budenholzer teams and wins tons of regular-season games. Then one of Booker or KD is going to get MVP consideration. Bet the younger guy — Booker is 27 while Durant is 36 — who usually plays more games.

Rookie of the Year

Betting favorite: Memphis' Zach Edey (+350)

Favorite bet: Houston's Reed Sheppard (+700)

Edey's odds were in the +700 range near the draft, so getting him at +350 now would be a tough pill to swallow. That brings us to Sheppard, who has looked incredible in the Summer League and preseason. Don't be surprised if he supplants incumbent starter Fred VanVleet, who has a tradable contract, as the point guard.

Best value bet: San Antonio's Stephon Castle (+1100)

In his one season at UConn, Castle, a McDonald's All-American recruit, flashed a little bit of everything for the Huskies. It was reminiscent of a young Andre Iguodala — a guy who could have a larger offensive burden if needed but would happily focus on playing elite defense and being the connective tissue on offense if the team already had guys who could score. Emerging as Robin to Wemby's Batman could go a long way in the eyes of voters.

Long shot bet: Portland's Donovan Clingan (+2000)

While Rookie of the Year typically goes to a player who scores a lot, "Cling Kong" is huge (7-foot-2 and 280 pounds) and moves well for his size, so he has a chance to be an excellent defensive big man immediately. His final game of the preseason was so impressive (14 points, 20 rebounds, four assists and four blocks) that his Rookie of the Year odds went from +3000 to +2000. 

Most Improved Player

Betting favorite: San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama (+700)

Favorite bet: Wembanyama (+700)

Some voters are reluctant to vote for second-year players for this award, but who cares — it's Wemby. Anything is possible with this guy. If he continues his rapid rise to the top of the league, and has San Antonio even on the fringe of playoff contention, there's a good chance he'll be in the mix for this award. Heck, his MVP odds (+1700) aren't much higher than these MIP odds.

Best value bet: Houston's Jalen Green (+3000)

Green officially began his campaign during the final 24 games of last season, when he averaged 24.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG and four APG with relatively efficient shooting splits (45-37-81). If he produces similar numbers for an entire season, and the Rockets are a serious playoff contender with him at the forefront, you'll be excited that you tossed a couple of dollars on these 30-to-1 odds.

Long shot bet: Los Angeles Lakers' Austin Reaves (+6000)

Reaves was a sexy pick for the Most Improved Player award last season, but he wasn't given much of an on-ball role for the Lakers during the year. Lucky for Reaves, Lakers new coach JJ Redick is a huge fan of his game and has said that he plans to have him more involved this season. What that means remains to be seen, but if it means having Reaves effectively play point guard for the Lakers this season, the increased usage will lead to a better statistical profile. 

Sixth Man of the Year

Betting favorite: Sacramento's Malik Monk (+450)

Favorite bet: Minnesota's Donte DiVincenzo (+1200)

If there was a guarantee that DDV would come off the bench the entire season, he'd probably be the betting favorite — he clearly has a giant chip on his shoulder after being traded from the 'Nova Knicks. 12-to-1 odds for a guy who averaged 15.5 PPG with 44-40-75 shooting splits last regular season and stepped up even more in the postseason (17.8 PPG with 42-43-87 shooting splits) are way too good to bypass.

Best value bet: Los Angeles Clippers' Norman Powell (+1600)

Powell doesn't seem too worried about Paul George's departure.

"I saw it as addition by subtraction," Powell told the media, via Joey Linn of Sports Illustrated. "More guys getting opportunities, including myself." 

Sounds like Norm will be letting it fly all season, especially with Kawhi Leonard out indefinitely. 

Long shot bet: New Orleans' Trey Murphy III (+4000)

This guy is way too good to be coming off the bench, and he may end up starting too many games, but Murphy is one of the best players on this list and currently at 40-to-1 odds. For now, though, he looks like the odd man out as the Pelicans already have Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Herb Jones at forward and Dejounte Murray and CJ McCollum at guard. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Betting favorite: San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama (-170)

Favorite bet: Miami's Bam Adebayo (+1400)

Wemby is far and away the safest bet here, but no one likes to make futures bets that start with the minus symbol. Thus, take a flyer on the Miami Heat's most important player and anchor of their defense that had the fifth-best defensive rating last season. If Wemby falters for some reason, Adebayo, who has finished third in DPOY voting last season, is a solid choice.

Best value bet: Los Angeles Lakers' Anthony Davis (+1800)

If the Lakers surprise people, make the playoffs and avoid the play-in tournament, it will mean that AD will have had a first-team All-NBA-caliber and DPOY-caliber season. Without Davis' elite rim-protection and ability to switch onto guards on the perimeter, the Lakers would probably have one of the worst defenses in the NBA.

Long shot: Golden State's Draymond Green (+10000)

Even at 34, Green is still a defensive genius and one of the best defensive anchors in the NBA. If the Stephen Curry-Green-Steve Kerr dynasty has one last run in it, the Warriors will need a Herculean regular-season defensive effort out of Green.