NBA futures: Dougherty's expert picks for NBA awards

The NBA returns this week with the start of the 2024-25 season. We don't have much time left to put the finishing touches on our NBA futures portfolio, so let's take a look at some award markets for some last-minute bets. Here are our three favorite award futures for the upcoming NBA season.

Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle (+1100 DraftKings)

We're skipping the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year markets because we don't see any value heading into the season. Of course, that could change as the season progresses, but we're steering clear for now. Instead, let's focus on a wide-open Rookie of the Year race.

There aren't any slam-dunk prospects from the 2024 NBA Draft class, so this award is very much up for grabs. Zach Edey is the heavy favorite (as low as +290) to win ROY, but we think he's a vulnerable favorite in this market. Let's fade him with Castle.

Castle averaged 11.1 points and 2.9 assists at UConn last season, but it was his maturity and defensive versatility that stuck out the most. The talented guard did an exceptional job running the Huskies' offense, and he coughed up only 1.5 turnovers per game as a freshman. Castle's patient, tactical game on both sides of the court is exactly what Gregg Popovich looks for in a guard.

We've already seen that player-coach relationship thrive, as Castle was closing out games for the San Antonio Spurs in the preseason. With Chris Paul's injury history, Castle should get a ton of playing time on an up-tempo, stat-friendly team. 

Most Improved Player: Jalen Williams (+1100 FanDuel)

Speaking of vulnerable favorites, Victor Wembanyama is a +650 favorite to win Most Improved Player. You know, the same guy who averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game as a rookie. If he improves those numbers enough, he'll have a better chance of winning Defensive Player of the Year or even MVP. 

As for how to fade him, we like Williams a tad further down the board at +1100. The Oklahoma City Thunder guard already made a massive jump from Year 1 to Year 2, and we think he takes the next step to All-Star this season. With Josh Giddey out of the fold, the Thunder have 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game to make up. Most of that usage will be going to Williams, who showed the ability to close games with his clutch shooting and defense alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season. 

Williams averaged 35.0 points per 100 possessions without Giddey on the floor last season, and his assist numbers should see a huge boost with more room to showcase his playmaking skills.