NFL player props Week 8: Nick Chubb, Tyler Allgeier, more

It was nice to see Nick Chubb return to action last week. He showed some of the burst he had before suffering a devastating knee injury, but it still may take him a few games to regain form. It’s also possible he may not return the elite level he had pre-injury.

Chubb has averaged 5+ yards per carry in each of his six seasons, but it’s hard to imagine him doing that again at this stage in his career, especially considering the Browns‘ offensive line isn’t as good this year (ESPN run block win rate ranks 26th). They’ve dealt with injuries and LT Jedrick Wills Jr. has been ruled out this week with a knee injury.

This is also a brutal matchup for Chubb — the Ravens have only allowed 2 RBs to rush for a 13+ yard gain all season.

Chubb should see his usage ramp up this week, but he might not get many carries in what should be a more pass-heavy, trailing game script against the Ravens.

He typically bounces his runs outside, but last week he ran inside on 66% of his rushes, which was a bit out of character. If that continues, it would make it even tougher to break a longer run because the Ravens have been even better defending inside runs.

I’m projecting Chubb’s median longest rush closer to 11 (which would make him only the third RB to have a 10+ yard run all season against Baltimore), but around a 60% chance to stay under 12.5 because every yard in this market is massive.

Titans vs. Lions Player Props: Terrion Arnold Tackles + Assists

Terrion Arnold, the Lions‘ first-round pick this year out of Alabama, has only cleared 3.5 tackles and assists number in two of six games.

The two times he went over were against the Rams in Week 1, when both Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua were healthy and combined for 18 receptions, and in Week 4 against the Seahawks, when their trio of WRs combined for 20 receptions. Those are the types of games Arnold can clear this number.

But he’s not involved in run defense, with only one tackle on a run play all season. The Titans are a team that provides tackles to CBs at one of the lowest rates.

Arnold defends on the outside most of the time, so he will be covering either Calvin Ridley or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on most snaps. That’s not going to lead to a ton of tackle opportunities.

In fact, the Titans with Mason Rudolph (assuming Will Levis doesn’t play) are only expected to complete around 20 passes, which is around 5-5.5 fewer than the Lions typically allow.

I’m projecting Arnold closer to 2.7 tackles and assists, with around a 70% chance to stay under (22% chance he gets exactly three).

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Player Props: Tyler Allgeier Longest Rush

Tyler Allgeier is Bijan Robinson’s backup so his workload relies a ton on the game script.

Last week, the Falcons got blown out by the Seahawks, so Robinson dominated the work and Allgeier only had five carries though he managed to rip a 24-yard rush.

He’s a very efficient runner and this is a great matchup for him because the Falcons are slight favorites here (-2.5), so we could get a more run-heavy game script.

The Bucs have a pretty solid run defense, ranking 9th in DVOA. However, they tend to be much better on inside runs with Vita Vea helping stuff those rushes.

The Bucs struggle against runs to the outside, allowing the most rushing yards over expected, according to NextGenStats. That sets up perfectly for Allgeier, who runs outside at the third-highest rate among qualified RBs. Slot CB Tykee Smith is also out — he’s been good in run defense this year.

I prefer this market over Allgeier’s yards because it’s always tricky trying to project how much work he will get, but I think he’s a safer bet to rip off at least one long run.

I’m projecting his median closer to 14 yards with around a 60% chance to go over.