Chase Elliott stuck between a rock and a hard place in NASCAR championship chase

A glance at Chase Elliott’s stat sheet over the course of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season gives off mixed signals. 

On one hand, Elliott has 30 top-20 finishes and an incredible average finish of 12.1. He’s easily been one of NASCAR’s most consistent drivers this season. It wasn’t until the 20th race of the season in Chicago that he finished worse than 19th. 

On the other hand, Elliott only has one victory, coming at Texas Motor Speedway on April 14, and has only led 295 laps — not exactly indicative of a championship-caliber campaign. 

His playoff run has been equally confusing. In the eight playoff races run so far, Elliott has three top-five finishes, including a runner-up to teammate Kyle Larson at the Bristol Night Race. But he also has three finishes of 18th or worse, including a 33rd-place finish at Las Vegas that put him in a must-win situation to make the Championship Four. 

For the longest time on Sunday, it seemed like Elliott and the No. 9 team would earn the win they so badly needed at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. Elliott led 81 laps in the 400-mile race and looked to have one of the best cars in the field. 

But Elliott’s dominant drive was soon forgotten by most of the NASCAR world as Tyler Reddick ripped around the top side of the track on the final lap, beating Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin in a finish that will be water-cooler fodder for fans for years to come. 

The race was a perfect representation of Elliott’s season on the whole: consistent to be sure, but not quite enough to beat the top dogs of the NASCAR Cup Series. 

Elliott should be commended for driving a solid race with his season on the line as Homestead was undoubtedly his best drive since the aforementioned race at Texas in April. However, the not-so-silver lining in the story is that the No. 9 team still hasn’t figured out how to put together a winning performance since the spring — not a good problem to have in the thick of the playoffs. 

As the Cup Series heads to Martinsville for the final race of the Round of 8, the No. 9 team must replicate its performance at the half-mile from November 2020 when Elliott won his way into the Championship Four before winning the title at Phoenix a week later.

Life 43 points below the cut line isn’t ideal for Elliott, but at least there’s some momentum behind the No. 9 team with Martinsville on the horizon.