How Hendrick Motorsports' dream playoff scenario came crashing down

Rick Hendrick must have been on top of the world on the afternoon of Oct. 13. 

In that day’s NASCAR Cup Series playoff race in Charlotte, all four of Hendrick's entries — including race winner Kyle Larson — advanced to the Round of 8 in the playoffs. 

Hendrick’s four-car operation would make up half of the postseason field in the penultimate round and had a chance to lock out the Championship Four, guaranteeing a championship would be brought back to the team’s campus less than two miles from Charlotte Motor Speedway. 

For a faction of the team’s employees, though, the five-minute drive back to the shop on the evening of Oct. 13 likely took hours. 

That's when news broke of a post-race inspection that revealed Alex Bowman's No. 48 car was disqualified for not meeting weight specifications, disqualifying him from the race and knocking him out of the playoffs. 

Down a man in the quartet, the organization only had three championship-eligible drivers when the circuit went to Las Vegas on Oct. 20 for the first race of the Round of 8. In a cruel twist of fate, Joey Logano — who took over Bowman’s spot in the Round of 8 after disqualification — won the race, locking himself into the Championship Four. 

At Homestead-Miami on Sunday, Chase Elliott, who needed a win to make the Championship Four himself, drove his best race of the season. The No. 9 car looked faster than it had in months, and Elliott had a chance to punch his ticket to Phoenix. 

But Elliott faded late, leaving Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and eventual race winner Tyler Reddick to battle it out in a classic finish. 

That classic finish was only made possible by Larson's mistake. After a flat tire on lap 47 sent him to the back of the pack, Larson and the No. 5 team battled back, breaking back into the top five in the race’s final stage. 

But with 13 laps to go, Larson’s aggression bit him, as it had many times before. While battling with Blaney for the race lead, Larson tried to squeeze his Chevrolet in between Blaney and the lapped car of Austin Dillon. The move sent Larson spinning, and a slow pit stop under caution relegated him to a disappointing 13th-place finish. 

Larson enters Martinsville on Sunday — the final race of the Round of 8 — seven points below the cut line to make the Championship Four. The driver above him is Hendrick Motorsports’ own William Byron, who holds the final transfer spot. 

Byron may be Hendrick’s best shot at a Championship Four berth entering the weekend. Still, a win by either Denny Hamlin or Ryan Blaney — who are Martinsville experts and need a win to make the championship race — would knock Byron out and send Larson home. 

If Hendrick wants all three of its remaining entries to advance to Phoenix, the best scenario would be for Byron and Larson to have 50-plus point days, combined with a walk-off win for Elliott. 

The nightmare scenario? A win by either Hamlin or Blaney would knock out Byron, Larson, and Elliott in one fell swoop. 

Immediately following the Charlotte Roval, the thought of Hendrick Motorsports being shut out of the Championship Four seemed preposterous. But it's no longer fantasy. It's now a reality for NASCAR’s greatest-ever team.