Lionel Messi and Olivier Giroud at risk as top seeds face early exits from MLS Cup Playoffs

Both Miami and LAFC enter their final Round 1 matches as home-field favorites, but there are plenty of factors that could swing their games in favor of their opponents. Here's what each is up against.

Inter Miami CF vs. Atlanta United FC

There's no getting around it; Miami should be doing much better against Atlanta than it is. There's a massive talent gap between the two teams, and Atlanta is muddling through a difficult season of rebuilding. It doesn't even have a full-time coach at this point, let alone a realistic shot at the MLS Cup.

But Atlanta has cleared every hurdle in its path and given Miami plenty to worry about. No team in MLS has a better record against Miami in the Lionel Messi era than Atlanta does. And while Atlanta is growing in confidence on the strength of its unexpected momentum, Miami is fading, with several key players either underperforming or missing entirely. 

Right back Marcelo Weigandt looked terrible against Atlanta in Game 2 as a defender and a ball distributor; his mistake led to Atlanta's winning goal, and his failure to pass forward kept Messi from making his mark on the game. And Sergio Busquets, the metronome of Miami's midfield, missed Game 2 due to illness and looks set to miss Game 3 as well.

Miami is still the clear favorite for a reason; if Messi and Luis Suarez are in form and hungry, they can turn games in their favor regardless of how the rest of their team performs. 

But Miami looks weaker now than it has all season, and if Atlanta plays lights out — and gets a little lucky — it could send Miami packing.

LAFC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC

LAFC isn't perfect; it loses plenty of games. But it rarely gets played off the field like it did in Game 2 against the Vancouver Whitecaps. The 3-0 defeat was one of LAFC's worst results of the season, and it could not have come at a worse time for the club.

The story here isn't about LAFC underperforming; for the most part, the team has looked just fine. (But star striker Olivier Giroud has struggled to make an impact, leading many to wonder if veteran MLS goalscorer Kei Kamara should take his place in the starting lineup in Game 3.)

Instead, it's about Vancouver, a team that has been nothing short of brilliant in the postseason. It's mastered a 4-3-2-1 formation that gets the best of its attacking trio of Ryan Gauld, Brian White and Fafa Picault. 

New signing Stuart Armstrong is finally coming into his own just behind them, and his work in the center of the park has given Gauld, White and Picault the freedom they needed to truly explode. Vancouver has scored nine goals in its three postseason games, so it's onto something good. LAFC would do well to be wary.

LAFC will take on Vancouver on Friday, Nov. 8; Miami will take on Atlanta on Saturday, Nov. 9.