NFL Week 11 betting guide

Week 11 of the NFL season is almost here, and what a massive week it is with multiple crucial divisional matchups and arguably the game of the year. Before you start building your betting card for Week 11, check out our comprehensive betting guide filled with breakdowns and predictions for every game. 

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Thursday, Nov. 14, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Spread: Eagles -3.5
Total: 48.5

The Week 11 slate begins with a huge NFC East clash between the Eagles and Commanders. Washington is coming off a close loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Eagles have been one of the best teams in football since their bye week.

Over the last five weeks, the Eagles rank No. 1 in defensive EPA/play, No. 1 in defensive success rate and No. 5 in offensive EPA/play. This Vic Fangio defense is only getting better as the season goes on, but it hasn't seen a dual-threat QB like Jayden Daniels yet.

Mismatch to exploit: A.J. Brown vs. Commanders secondary

The Commanders play a high percentage of man coverage, and Brown is one of the best downfield man-beaters in the NFL. Marshon Lattimore is also out, so check out Brown's over receiving yards.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Commanders 26

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots

Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Rams -4.5
Total: 43.5

Last week's performance was disappointing for the Rams, as they failed to score a touchdown in their 23-15 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Los Angeles' biggest issue right now is its beat-up offensive line, and the Patriots are coming off a nine-sack game against the Chicago Bears. 

New England's defense held Chicago to 2.4 yards per play and a 1-of-14 mark on third down last week. It won't be easy to replicate that performance with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua coming to town.

Mismatch to exploit: Matthew Stafford vs. Patriots defense

The Pats struggle to force turnovers (28th in opponent interception rate), and Stafford is one of the smartest, most accurate QBs in the league. Give a look to Stafford's no interception prop.

Prediction: Rams 26, Patriots 20

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Dolphins -7
Total: 44.5

Speaking of the Dolphins, this is a much different team than we saw earlier in the season. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the field, Miami has beaten the Rams and narrowly lost to the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills. At 3-6, the Dolphins will still have a 12 percent chance to make the playoffs with a win this week.

There aren't many positives to share about the Raiders, which lost five straight games before their bye week. Gardner Minshew will be back under center, and he could be under siege with three starting offensive linemen listed as questionable. 

Mismatch to exploit: Dolphins defensive line vs. Raiders offensive line

The Dolphins racked up four sacks and forced two turnovers against the Rams last week with Zach Sieler back on the field. Check out some Miami sack props or Minshew to throw a pick.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Raiders 13

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Lions -13.5
Total: 47

The Lions turned the ball over five times last week and still found a way to beat the Texans on the road. This team gets scarier and scarier every week, and that's especially true this Sunday with Za'Darius Smith expected to make his Detroit debut.

The Jaguars are rolling with Mac Jones for the second straight week with Trevor Lawrence injured. Jones led the offense to just 143 total yards and three turnovers against the Minnesota Vikings last week. You can see why Detroit is the biggest favorite on the board in Week 11. 

Mismatch to exploit: Lions offense vs. Jaguars defense

Jared Goff threw five interceptions last week, and the Lions still found a way to put up 26 points. Check out their team total over against an overmatched Jags defense. 

Prediction: Lions 32, Jaguars 10

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Saints -1.5
Total: 44.5

A week after firing Dennis Allen, the Saints upset the Atlanta Falcons under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. New Orleans averaged 7.0 yards per play thanks to Marquez Valdes-Scantling's big-play ability, but we'll see how long the interim magic lasts. 

The Browns' success entirely depends on Jameis Winston's play. Cleveland upset the Baltimore Ravens in Winston's first start, but they got crushed by the Los Angeles Chargers when he threw three interceptions. We could see the good Winston against a Saints defense that recently traded away Lattimore. 

Mismatch to exploit: Jameis Winston vs. Saints secondary

We know Winston is going to air it out, and he'll be able to produce explosive pass plays against a Saints secondary that just lost Lattimore and let Kirk Cousins throw for 306 yards. Check out Winston's passing yards over.

Prediction: Browns 23, Saints 20

Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans

Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Vikings -6
Total: 39.5

The Vikings are coming off back-to-back ugly wins against the Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts, but Sam Darnold was the only reason they were even close. Darnold threw five total interceptions in those two games, so he needs to find a way to protect the football.

Will Levis went 18-of-23 for 175 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers last week, but he could be in trouble against Brian Flores' blitz-heavy defense. Flores will be licking his chops in this matchup. 

Mismatch to exploit: Brian Flores vs. Will Levis

Levis panics when under pressure, and Flores is going to bring the heat. Check out Levis to throw an interception or go under his passing yards prop.

Prediction: Vikings 19, Titans 13

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Jets -4
Total: 43.5

The Colts are an absolute mess right now. After benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco a few weeks ago, Indy has decided to go back on that decision and throw AR15 back into the fire. Richardson and Jonathan Taylor could have big rushing games against a Jets defense that ranks 27th in rush success rate. 

Speaking of a mess, we present to you the 2024 New York Jets. New York got embarrassed on both sides of the ball by Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals last week, and its chances of making the playoffs are starting to look grim. Who's excited for this matchup of incompetence?

Mismatch to exploit: Jonathan Taylor vs. Jets rush defense

This should be a busy game for Taylor in Richardson's return to the field, and the Jets have been gashed for explosive run plays all year. Check out Taylor's rushing yards over.

Prediction: Jets 23, Colts 20

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Packers -5.5
Total: 40.5

Sticking with the theme of incompetence, the Bears hit a new low last week in a blowout loss to the Patriots. It was so bad that Chicago fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron a few days later. The good news for the Bears is they could be getting both starting tackles back in the lineup after giving up nine sacks last week. 

The Packers are coming off their bye week, and there's no reason not to be confident heading into this matchup. Green Bay is 15-1 in its last 16 games against the Bears and 10-0 against the spread in the last 10 meetings.

Mismatch to exploit: The Bears vs. expectations

The Bears have hit rock bottom in the betting market, but this offense should look better with a new play-caller in place and a healthier offensive line. The Bears to cover is a valuable bet this week, no matter how gross it sounds.

Prediction: Bears 20, Packers 19

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Ravens -3
Total: 48

The best game in the 1 p.m. slate features the 7-2 Steelers and the 7-3 Ravens. This result will go a long way in determining the AFC North champion.

Lamar Jackson would be the league MVP if the regular season ended today, but this new-look Steelers offense should be able to keep up. Pittsburgh is 3-0 and averaging 30.3 points per game since Wilson took over the starting QB job. Get your popcorn ready for this one. 

Mismatch to exploit: Mike Tomlin vs. John Harbaugh

The Steelers are 7-1 in their last eight games against the Ravens, and their only loss in that span came by two points. Think about Pittsburgh plus the points or as a six-point teaser leg this week. 

Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 23

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: 49ers -6.5
Total: 48

The 49ers squeaked past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week despite dominating the box score, and they have Jake Moody and his three missed field goals to thank for the close call. Christian McCaffrey racked up 107 total yards in his season debut, but he didn't look like the explosive weapon we're used to watching.

The Seahawks are coming off a much-needed bye week, and they should be getting DK Metcalf back from his knee injury. Even with Metcalf in the lineup, though, Seattle lost by 12 to San Fran earlier in the season. The defense might be outmatched against this 49ers offense.

Mismatch to exploit: 49ers offense vs. Seahawks defense

This San Francisco offense is back to being an elite unit with McCaffrey in the fold, and the Seahawks have no answers for Brock Purdy. Check out the 49ers team total over.

Prediction: 49ers 31, Seahawks 26

Atlanta Falcons @ Denver Broncos

Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Broncos -2.5
Total: 44

The Broncos are coming off a demoralizing loss against the Kansas City Chiefs last week in which they had a game-winning field-goal attempt blocked as time expired. That could lead to a letdown performance, but Denver should be thrilled with where it's at after outplaying the undefeated Super Bowl champs. Bo Nix has a bright future, and this defense is the real deal.

The Falcons are also coming off a brutal loss against an undermanned Saints team, but the offense still averaged 6.4 yards per play in the game. The defense has trouble limiting explosive plays, but the Broncos can't generate many explosives on that side of the ball.

Mismatch to exploit: Patrick Surtain II vs. Drake London

Surtain has been shutting down WR1s all season, and London's props could be inflated after his 97-yard game last week. Take a look at his under receiving yards. 

Prediction: Falcons 24, Broncos 20

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, Nov. 17, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Spread: Bills -2
Total: 45.5

Ladies and gentlemen, we've made it. The game of the year in 2024. 

The Chiefs may be undefeated, but they're not playing like the best team in the NFL right now. Kansas City ranks 11th in EPA/play on offense and 16th in success rate on defense this season. The 17-0 dream has to end at some point for this group.

There's a decent chance that comes this week, as Josh Allen has taken down Patrick Mahomes in each of the last two regular-season matchups between them. The problem for Allen? Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid and Spencer Brown are all questionable to play. 

Mismatch to exploit: Patrick Mahomes as an underdog

This is more of a principle play than a matchup, but Mahomes is 12-1-1 against the spread and 11-3 straight up as an underdog in his career. You know what to do.

Prediction: Chiefs 24, Bills 23

Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, Nov. 17, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Spread: Chargers -1.5
Total: 48

There aren't many offenses playing better than the Bengals right now, just as there aren't many defenses playing better than the Chargers. Cincinnati has put up 75 points in its last two games, but Los Angeles ranks first in the NFL in points allowed per game (13.1). This is a classic showdown of strength versus strength. 

The Chargers have looked much more explosive on offense since they started letting Justin Herbert throw the ball more. Herbert is averaging 262.2 passing yards over his last five starts, and he's thrown only one interception this season. 

Mismatch to exploit: Bengals as underdogs

The Bengals are 4-6, but they've lost only one game by more than one possession. Look to tease them up to +7.5 and pair them with the Steelers.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Chargers 24

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys

Monday, Nov. 18, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Texans -7.5
Total: 42

The Texans wasted a golden opportunity to score a marquee win against the Lions last week. The good news is wide receiver Nico Collins and/or pass-rusher Will Anderson could return to the field on Monday night. 

The Cowboys are a disaster right now. Dak Prescott underwent season-ending surgery this week, and Cooper Rush managed only 45 passing yards against the Eagles in his first start. Good luck against a Texans defense which ranks third in the NFL in dropback success rate this year.

Mismatch to exploit: Joe Mixon vs. Cowboys rush defense

Mixon has rushed for 100 yards in five of his seven starts this season, and the Cowboys rank dead last in the NFL in rush EPA. Check out Mixon's rushing yards over.

Prediction: Texans 26, Cowboys 17