Breaking down the top NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidates

There are many benefits to being an NFL quarterback, but one drawback is that you’re probably not going to win AP Offensive Player of the Year.

A QB usually wins NFL MVP — that has been the case every year since 2012 — and a running back or receiver wins Offensive Player of the Year. No non-WR or running back has won that award since Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes in 2018.

This is reflected in FanDuel's betting odds through Tuesday (Nov. 19).

The front-runners for MVP — QBs Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) — have odds of +3500 and +1400 for Offensive Player of the Year, respectively. 

So, if those two aren’t the favorites, who are? Here are the top three Offensive Player of the Year candidates, per FanDuel.

WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

His season: The Bengals, a powerhouse offensively, might be dangerous for any opponent in the AFC playoffs, but they are 4-7 and may not even make the postseason. This isn’t the fault of Chase, who continues to be one of the league’s top offensive weapons.

Through 11 games, he leads the league in receptions (73), yards receiving (1,056) and touchdown catches (12). If Chase wins Offensive Player of the Year, he’d be the first Bengal to do so since QB Ken Anderson in 1981. 

His outlook: Chase is +650 to win the award, putting him well behind the favorites. 

RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

His season: Being 30 isn’t young for a guy who plays a position as physically demanding as running back. When the Ravens signed Henry in the spring after eight seasons with the Tennessee Titans, some expressed skepticism, but Henry is as good as ever. 

He leads all RBs in rushing yards (1,185) and yards per carry in 30+ attempts (6.0) and is tied for first in carries (197). Plus, he leads all players in touchdowns with 15. If Henry leads the league in all four of these categories, he’d be the first to do so since 1963, when Pro Football Hall of Famer Jim Brown accomplished the feat for the Cleveland Browns.

His outlook: Henry, who has +150 odds to win the award, and another RB stand far above the rest to win Offensive Player of the Year. 

RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

His season: When Barkley is healthy, he’s one of the best running backs in the league. The former Giant has been healthy in his first season as an Eagle, and as a result, he’s having a career year. Through 10 games, he already has 1,137 yards rushing, second to Henry. Barkley has also done damage as a receiver (23 catches, 210 yards and two TDs).

Perhaps the most impressive stat is that, per Benjamin Solak of ESPN, there have been nine instances in which Barkley has come a yard short of scoring a touchdown. Of those nine, eight of them have resulted in Barkley not touching the ball the next play. If the Eagles gave Barkley more chances to score TDs (he still has eight through 10 games), he might be in the NFL MVP mix, too.

His outlook: It’s Henry, Barkley and then everybody else for OPOY. At +115, Barkley is the favorite, but that could change quickly. The Eagles face two stout rushing defenses in December — the Baltimore Ravens (Dec. 1) and Pittsburgh Steelers (Dec. 15)