It's time for the Timberwolves to change their starting lineup

The Minnesota Timberwolves entered the 2024-25 season with high hopes after their impressive playoff run last year. However, as the season approaches its quarter mark, the Timberwolves are failing to meet expectations.

With an 8-8 record and facing the league’s eighth-easiest schedule, they are currently outside the play-in tournament picture.

Minnesota has suffered several disappointing losses, including a back-to-back defeat against the rebuilding Trail Blazers and a setback against the struggling Raptors. Moreover, Minnesota has managed just two wins against teams with winning records — a narrow three-point victory over the Nuggets and another close contest against the Suns.

The Timberwolves' early-season funk can’t be merely written off as a post-Karl-Anthony Towns malaise anymore. It’s time for head coach Chris Finch to make a change to the starting lineup.

Jaden McDaniels has been a major concern for the T-wolves this year. He’s averaging just 10.9 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game while shooting a disappointing 31.7% from beyond the arc. This is particularly troubling considering the quality of his looks; 3.3 of his 3.9 three-point attempts per game have been wide open (no defender with six feet). 

Opposing defenses are routinely sagging off McDaniels to clog driving lanes for Anthony Edwards, effectively stifling Minnesota’s offense. His inability to capitalize on well-executed opportunities has been deflating and seems to bleed into the team’s defensive energy, creating a ripple effect on both ends of the floor.

McDaniels’ on/off splits have been ugly. The Timberwolves are 13.4 points worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor. While plus/minus stats can sometimes be noisy — especially for defensive specialists who often match up against the top scorers in the league — McDaniels’ individual defense appears to have taken a noticeable step back this season. 

His top four assignments by possessions — De’Aaron Fox, Scoot Henderson, Luka Doncic and Tyler Herro — have all shot over 57.0% when matched up against him. On the year, McDaniels is allowing his opponents to shoot 2.4% higher than their season average.

The Timberwolves’ offensive spacing has been wrecked with McDaniels, Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle — three subpar shooters — sharing the floor. This has forced Edwards to adapt his game. While his scoring remains stellar, averaging 27.9 points per contest on an impressive 43.8% shooting from deep across 11.1 attempts nightly, Edwards' playmaking has noticeably declined. 

His assists are down to 3.9 per game. Instead of relentlessly attacking the rim and creating opportunities for teammates as he did last season, Edwards is averaging just 12.4 drives per contest — a significant drop from his previous output.

Edwards has been forced into taking a high volume of contested shots, with his 11.4 pull-up jumpers per game ranking third in the NBA — a clear reflection of the defensive pressure he faces. While he is a capable shooter, relying on difficult perimeter looks diminishes his effectiveness as a scorer and playmaker. 

Each time Edwards settles for a difficult jumper instead of attacking the basket, drawing fouls and collapsing the defense, it’s a win for the opposition. This limits his overall impact and makes life easier for defenders, allowing them to conserve energy for their offensive possessions.

Head coach Chris Finch has stubbornly stuck with a starting lineup featuring three non-shooters, but McDaniels’ struggles on both ends of the floor necessitate a change. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who leads all T-wolves regular rotation players in three-point shooting at 44.4%, could be the answer.

Alexander-Walker’s 2.6 deflections per game highlight his status as Minnesota’s most disruptive defender, and his shooting ability would provide much-needed spacing for the offense. Inserting him into the starting lineup could revitalize the Timberwolves’ stagnant attack, providing Edwards with the room he needs to operate and get into the lane.